Recent high-resolution model runs, including GFS guidance, indicate a daily maximum near 30–31°C for Madrid on September 11 under clear skies, light southerly winds, and minimal cloud cover, establishing 31°C as the market leader at 61% implied probability. This aligns with current observations of stable high pressure and above-average conditions for early September, when the long-term mean high sits at 27.5°C. Ensemble consistency and lack of significant model spread reinforce trader focus on these two outcomes, while cooler or warmer extremes remain low-probability given the current steering pattern and absence of frontal activity. Updated forecasts from official agencies will provide the next key data point ahead of resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日9月11日のマドリードの最高気温は？
9月11日のマドリードの最高気温は？
31°C 61%
30℃ 24%
32℃ 14%
29℃ 2%
新規
$12,130 Vol.
新規
$12,130 Vol.
2026/09/11
25℃以下
<1%
26°C
<1%
27℃
1%
28℃
<1%
29℃
2%
30℃
24%
31°C
61%
32℃
14%
33℃
<1%
34℃
<1%
35℃以上
<1%
31°C 61%
30℃ 24%
32℃ 14%
29℃ 2%
新規
$12,130 Vol.
新規
$12,130 Vol.
2026/09/11
25℃以下
$822 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$733 Vol.
<1%
27℃
$445 Vol.
1%
28℃
$344 Vol.
<1%
29℃
$487 Vol.
2%
30℃
$4,316 Vol.
24%
31°C
$2,697 Vol.
61%
32℃
$1,062 Vol.
14%
33℃
$480 Vol.
<1%
34℃
$242 Vol.
<1%
35℃以上
$501 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent high-resolution model runs, including GFS guidance, indicate a daily maximum near 30–31°C for Madrid on September 11 under clear skies, light southerly winds, and minimal cloud cover, establishing 31°C as the market leader at 61% implied probability. This aligns with current observations of stable high pressure and above-average conditions for early September, when the long-term mean high sits at 27.5°C. Ensemble consistency and lack of significant model spread reinforce trader focus on these two outcomes, while cooler or warmer extremes remain low-probability given the current steering pattern and absence of frontal activity. Updated forecasts from official agencies will provide the next key data point ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
マーケット開始日： Sep 9, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
音量
$12,130終了日
2026/09/11マーケット開始日
Sep 9, 2026, 12:57 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent high-resolution model runs, including GFS guidance, indicate a daily maximum near 30–31°C for Madrid on September 11 under clear skies, light southerly winds, and minimal cloud cover, establishing 31°C as the market leader at 61% implied probability. This aligns with current observations of stable high pressure and above-average conditions for early September, when the long-term mean high sits at 27.5°C. Ensemble consistency and lack of significant model spread reinforce trader focus on these two outcomes, while cooler or warmer extremes remain low-probability given the current steering pattern and absence of frontal activity. Updated forecasts from official agencies will provide the next key data point ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
音量
$12,130終了日
2026/09/11マーケット開始日
Sep 9, 2026, 12:57 AM ETRecent high-resolution model runs, including GFS guidance, indicate a daily maximum near 30–31°C for Madrid on September 11 under clear skies, light southerly winds, and minimal cloud cover, establishing 31°C as the market leader at 61% implied probability. This aligns with current observations of stable high pressure and above-average conditions for early September, when the long-term mean high sits at 27.5°C. Ensemble consistency and lack of significant model spread reinforce trader focus on these two outcomes, while cooler or warmer extremes remain low-probability given the current steering pattern and absence of frontal activity. Updated forecasts from official agencies will provide the next key data point ahead of resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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