The limited Andes virus cluster aboard the MV Hondius cruise ship in spring 2026—yielding 13 confirmed or probable cases and three deaths—drove the near-certain market consensus against a hantavirus pandemic. Official CDC and WHO monitoring through June confirmed no sustained person-to-person transmission beyond the ship after 42-day quarantines and contact tracing of hundreds of individuals across multiple countries. Hantaviruses remain primarily rodent-borne zoonoses transmitted via aerosolized urine, droppings, or saliva, with the Andes strain permitting only close-contact spread unlike highly transmissible respiratory pathogens. No new clusters or elevated case counts have emerged by September 2026. A realistic shift would require a novel spillover event involving a more efficiently transmissible strain or undetected mutation enabling broader airborne spread, though current epidemiological data show no such trajectory.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日2026年のハンタウイルスのパンデミック？
2026年のハンタウイルスのパンデミック？
はい
3% 確率
$18,361,267 Vol.
$18,361,267 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
3% 確率
$18,361,267 Vol.
$18,361,267 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The limited Andes virus cluster aboard the MV Hondius cruise ship in spring 2026—yielding 13 confirmed or probable cases and three deaths—drove the near-certain market consensus against a hantavirus pandemic. Official CDC and WHO monitoring through June confirmed no sustained person-to-person transmission beyond the ship after 42-day quarantines and contact tracing of hundreds of individuals across multiple countries. Hantaviruses remain primarily rodent-borne zoonoses transmitted via aerosolized urine, droppings, or saliva, with the Andes strain permitting only close-contact spread unlike highly transmissible respiratory pathogens. No new clusters or elevated case counts have emerged by September 2026. A realistic shift would require a novel spillover event involving a more efficiently transmissible strain or undetected mutation enabling broader airborne spread, though current epidemiological data show no such trajectory.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： May 4, 2026, 10:26 AM ET
音量
$18,361,267終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
May 4, 2026, 10:26 AM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The limited Andes virus cluster aboard the MV Hondius cruise ship in spring 2026—yielding 13 confirmed or probable cases and three deaths—drove the near-certain market consensus against a hantavirus pandemic. Official CDC and WHO monitoring through June confirmed no sustained person-to-person transmission beyond the ship after 42-day quarantines and contact tracing of hundreds of individuals across multiple countries. Hantaviruses remain primarily rodent-borne zoonoses transmitted via aerosolized urine, droppings, or saliva, with the Andes strain permitting only close-contact spread unlike highly transmissible respiratory pathogens. No new clusters or elevated case counts have emerged by September 2026. A realistic shift would require a novel spillover event involving a more efficiently transmissible strain or undetected mutation enabling broader airborne spread, though current epidemiological data show no such trajectory.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$18,361,267終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
May 4, 2026, 10:26 AM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...The limited Andes virus cluster aboard the MV Hondius cruise ship in spring 2026—yielding 13 confirmed or probable cases and three deaths—drove the near-certain market consensus against a hantavirus pandemic. Official CDC and WHO monitoring through June confirmed no sustained person-to-person transmission beyond the ship after 42-day quarantines and contact tracing of hundreds of individuals across multiple countries. Hantaviruses remain primarily rodent-borne zoonoses transmitted via aerosolized urine, droppings, or saliva, with the Andes strain permitting only close-contact spread unlike highly transmissible respiratory pathogens. No new clusters or elevated case counts have emerged by September 2026. A realistic shift would require a novel spillover event involving a more efficiently transmissible strain or undetected mutation enabling broader airborne spread, though current epidemiological data show no such trajectory.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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