Incumbent Democrat Jim Costa advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary with 42% of the vote to face Republican Kyle Kirkland in the November general election for California's 21st congressional district. Multiple nonpartisan ratings classify the seat as Likely Democratic, consistent with Costa's 2024 reelection margin and the district's underlying partisan composition in the Central Valley. Costa maintains a substantial fundraising advantage and benefits from name recognition in a constituency that has supported Democratic candidates in recent cycles. Kirkland, a businessman who previously sought another House seat, trails significantly in resources and visibility. Trader consensus at 92.5% for Costa reflects these structural factors, though late developments such as shifts in national conditions or turnout patterns could narrow the gap before Election Day.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$27,144 Vol.
$27,144 Vol.
2026/11/02
ジム・コスタ（民主党）
93%
カイル・カークランド（共和党）
7%
$27,144 Vol.
$27,144 Vol.
2026/11/02
ジム・コスタ（民主党）
$14,977 Vol.
93%
カイル・カークランド（共和党）
$12,168 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Jim Costa advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary with 42% of the vote to face Republican Kyle Kirkland in the November general election for California's 21st congressional district. Multiple nonpartisan ratings classify the seat as Likely Democratic, consistent with Costa's 2024 reelection margin and the district's underlying partisan composition in the Central Valley. Costa maintains a substantial fundraising advantage and benefits from name recognition in a constituency that has supported Democratic candidates in recent cycles. Kirkland, a businessman who previously sought another House seat, trails significantly in resources and visibility. Trader consensus at 92.5% for Costa reflects these structural factors, though late developments such as shifts in national conditions or turnout patterns could narrow the gap before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ET
音量
$27,144終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Jim Costa advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary with 42% of the vote to face Republican Kyle Kirkland in the November general election for California's 21st congressional district. Multiple nonpartisan ratings classify the seat as Likely Democratic, consistent with Costa's 2024 reelection margin and the district's underlying partisan composition in the Central Valley. Costa maintains a substantial fundraising advantage and benefits from name recognition in a constituency that has supported Democratic candidates in recent cycles. Kirkland, a businessman who previously sought another House seat, trails significantly in resources and visibility. Trader consensus at 92.5% for Costa reflects these structural factors, though late developments such as shifts in national conditions or turnout patterns could narrow the gap before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$27,144終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Jim Costa advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary with 42% of the vote to face Republican Kyle Kirkland in the November general election for California's 21st congressional district. Multiple nonpartisan ratings classify the seat as Likely Democratic, consistent with Costa's 2024 reelection margin and the district's underlying partisan composition in the Central Valley. Costa maintains a substantial fundraising advantage and benefits from name recognition in a constituency that has supported Democratic candidates in recent cycles. Kirkland, a businessman who previously sought another House seat, trails significantly in resources and visibility. Trader consensus at 92.5% for Costa reflects these structural factors, though late developments such as shifts in national conditions or turnout patterns could narrow the gap before Election Day.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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