Incumbent Kevin Mullin holds a commanding position in the CA-15 general election due to the district’s strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+26 Cook Partisan Voter Index and Mullin’s 73% re-election margin in 2024. The June 2026 top-two primary reinforced this edge, with Mullin securing 65% of the vote to advance against Republican Charles Hoelter. Forecasters rate the seat Safe or Solid Democratic, and Mullin’s substantial fundraising advantage further supports trader consensus. Hoelter, a first-time challenger with limited reported resources, faces structural barriers in a San Mateo County and San Francisco Peninsula district. Late developments such as a national political shift or unforeseen candidate issues could narrow the gap, though historical patterns and current conditions indicate limited realistic paths for an upset before November 3.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$122,366 Vol.
$122,366 Vol.
2026/11/02
ケビン・マリン（民主党）
96%
チャールズ・ヘルター（共和党）
<1%
$122,366 Vol.
$122,366 Vol.
2026/11/02
ケビン・マリン（民主党）
$94,061 Vol.
96%
チャールズ・ヘルター（共和党）
$28,305 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Kevin Mullin holds a commanding position in the CA-15 general election due to the district’s strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+26 Cook Partisan Voter Index and Mullin’s 73% re-election margin in 2024. The June 2026 top-two primary reinforced this edge, with Mullin securing 65% of the vote to advance against Republican Charles Hoelter. Forecasters rate the seat Safe or Solid Democratic, and Mullin’s substantial fundraising advantage further supports trader consensus. Hoelter, a first-time challenger with limited reported resources, faces structural barriers in a San Mateo County and San Francisco Peninsula district. Late developments such as a national political shift or unforeseen candidate issues could narrow the gap, though historical patterns and current conditions indicate limited realistic paths for an upset before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
音量
$122,366終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Kevin Mullin holds a commanding position in the CA-15 general election due to the district’s strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+26 Cook Partisan Voter Index and Mullin’s 73% re-election margin in 2024. The June 2026 top-two primary reinforced this edge, with Mullin securing 65% of the vote to advance against Republican Charles Hoelter. Forecasters rate the seat Safe or Solid Democratic, and Mullin’s substantial fundraising advantage further supports trader consensus. Hoelter, a first-time challenger with limited reported resources, faces structural barriers in a San Mateo County and San Francisco Peninsula district. Late developments such as a national political shift or unforeseen candidate issues could narrow the gap, though historical patterns and current conditions indicate limited realistic paths for an upset before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$122,366終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Kevin Mullin holds a commanding position in the CA-15 general election due to the district’s strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+26 Cook Partisan Voter Index and Mullin’s 73% re-election margin in 2024. The June 2026 top-two primary reinforced this edge, with Mullin securing 65% of the vote to advance against Republican Charles Hoelter. Forecasters rate the seat Safe or Solid Democratic, and Mullin’s substantial fundraising advantage further supports trader consensus. Hoelter, a first-time challenger with limited reported resources, faces structural barriers in a San Mateo County and San Francisco Peninsula district. Late developments such as a national political shift or unforeseen candidate issues could narrow the gap, though historical patterns and current conditions indicate limited realistic paths for an upset before November 3.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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