**A magnitude 5.2 earthquake in the Chagos Archipelago region at 14:59 UTC on October 7 stands as the day's largest event per USGS data, with other confirmed quakes topping out at 4.9 or below.** This places the maximum firmly in the under-5.3 range, supporting its 52.5% market-implied probability. Seismic monitoring networks report magnitudes using body-wave (mb) or local scales with typical uncertainties of 0.1–0.3, and no larger events appear in global catalogs or real-time feeds. The near-even pricing across higher bins reflects minor residual uncertainty over final reviewed magnitudes, potential aftershock revisions, or undetected deep events, though official records show no activity exceeding 5.2. Traders weigh these USGS-verified observations against the low but non-zero chance of catalog updates before resolution.