Apple has deprioritized its mixed-reality headset lineup, shifting engineering resources to smart glasses projects slated for late 2027, according to consistent reporting from Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman and analyst Ming-Chi Kuo. The original Vision Pro and its 2025 M5 refresh received lukewarm adoption, prompting incoming leadership to cancel the lighter Vision Air variant and place any true Vision Pro successor “on ice” until a slimmer, lower-cost design can be achieved—pushing realistic availability to late 2028 or 2029. With only months remaining before 2027 and no active development or certification signals for a 2026 launch, traders see near-certain resolution on the “No” side. A surprise acceleration remains theoretically possible but would require an abrupt reversal of the current roadmap and supply-chain plans.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
5% 確率
新規
新規
2026/12/31
はい
5% 確率
新規
新規
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple has deprioritized its mixed-reality headset lineup, shifting engineering resources to smart glasses projects slated for late 2027, according to consistent reporting from Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman and analyst Ming-Chi Kuo. The original Vision Pro and its 2025 M5 refresh received lukewarm adoption, prompting incoming leadership to cancel the lighter Vision Air variant and place any true Vision Pro successor “on ice” until a slimmer, lower-cost design can be achieved—pushing realistic availability to late 2028 or 2029. With only months remaining before 2027 and no active development or certification signals for a 2026 launch, traders see near-certain resolution on the “No” side. A surprise acceleration remains theoretically possible but would require an abrupt reversal of the current roadmap and supply-chain plans.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Dec 12, 2025, 5:54 PM ET
音量
$6,191終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Dec 12, 2025, 5:54 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple has deprioritized its mixed-reality headset lineup, shifting engineering resources to smart glasses projects slated for late 2027, according to consistent reporting from Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman and analyst Ming-Chi Kuo. The original Vision Pro and its 2025 M5 refresh received lukewarm adoption, prompting incoming leadership to cancel the lighter Vision Air variant and place any true Vision Pro successor “on ice” until a slimmer, lower-cost design can be achieved—pushing realistic availability to late 2028 or 2029. With only months remaining before 2027 and no active development or certification signals for a 2026 launch, traders see near-certain resolution on the “No” side. A surprise acceleration remains theoretically possible but would require an abrupt reversal of the current roadmap and supply-chain plans.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$6,191終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Dec 12, 2025, 5:54 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...Apple has deprioritized its mixed-reality headset lineup, shifting engineering resources to smart glasses projects slated for late 2027, according to consistent reporting from Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman and analyst Ming-Chi Kuo. The original Vision Pro and its 2025 M5 refresh received lukewarm adoption, prompting incoming leadership to cancel the lighter Vision Air variant and place any true Vision Pro successor “on ice” until a slimmer, lower-cost design can be achieved—pushing realistic availability to late 2028 or 2029. With only months remaining before 2027 and no active development or certification signals for a 2026 launch, traders see near-certain resolution on the “No” side. A surprise acceleration remains theoretically possible but would require an abrupt reversal of the current roadmap and supply-chain plans.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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