Persistent security risks and stalled implementation of the Trump administration’s Gaza peace framework continue to shape trader views. A fragile October 2025 ceasefire has reduced large-scale fighting but left ongoing Israeli strikes, displacement, and incomplete Hamas disarmament, with reconstruction efforts lagging amid humanitarian shortfalls. As president, Trump’s schedule centers on UN General Assembly diplomacy, Ukraine talks, and Iran policy rather than a Gaza trip, consistent with the rarity of such visits by U.S. leaders to active conflict zones. The 96.8% implied probability for no visit reflects this combination of instability and competing priorities. Late-year stabilization, a verified full disarmament milestone, or an unforeseen diplomatic summit could still alter the outcome before December 31.