With the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season approaching its close and National Hurricane Center forecasts showing no active systems poised for rapid intensification into Category 4 strength before year-end, traders assign a 90.5% implied probability against U.S. landfall. Official model consensus and climatological patterns indicate that late-September and October storms rarely reach major hurricane thresholds while tracking toward the mainland, consistent with historical analogs where peak activity occurs earlier. Upcoming seasonal outlooks and any revised National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration guidance could shift sentiment, though an unusually late-forming or steering-pattern-altered system would be required to overcome the current low odds.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoQualche uragano di categoria 4 arriverà negli Stati Uniti prima del 2027?
Qualche uragano di categoria 4 arriverà negli Stati Uniti prima del 2027?
Sì
8% probabilità
$343,898 Vol.
$343,898 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
8% probabilità
$343,898 Vol.
$343,898 Vol.
31 dic 2026
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.With the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season approaching its close and National Hurricane Center forecasts showing no active systems poised for rapid intensification into Category 4 strength before year-end, traders assign a 90.5% implied probability against U.S. landfall. Official model consensus and climatological patterns indicate that late-September and October storms rarely reach major hurricane thresholds while tracking toward the mainland, consistent with historical analogs where peak activity occurs earlier. Upcoming seasonal outlooks and any revised National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration guidance could shift sentiment, though an unusually late-forming or steering-pattern-altered system would be required to overcome the current low odds.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Mercato aperto: Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ET
Volume
$343,898Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.With the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season approaching its close and National Hurricane Center forecasts showing no active systems poised for rapid intensification into Category 4 strength before year-end, traders assign a 90.5% implied probability against U.S. landfall. Official model consensus and climatological patterns indicate that late-September and October storms rarely reach major hurricane thresholds while tracking toward the mainland, consistent with historical analogs where peak activity occurs earlier. Upcoming seasonal outlooks and any revised National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration guidance could shift sentiment, though an unusually late-forming or steering-pattern-altered system would be required to overcome the current low odds.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Volume
$343,898Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...With the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season approaching its close and National Hurricane Center forecasts showing no active systems poised for rapid intensification into Category 4 strength before year-end, traders assign a 90.5% implied probability against U.S. landfall. Official model consensus and climatological patterns indicate that late-September and October storms rarely reach major hurricane thresholds while tracking toward the mainland, consistent with historical analogs where peak activity occurs earlier. Upcoming seasonal outlooks and any revised National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration guidance could shift sentiment, though an unusually late-forming or steering-pattern-altered system would be required to overcome the current low odds.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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