The UAE’s May 2026 departure from OPEC and OPEC+—driven by long-standing quota disputes and regional tensions—has already occurred, leaving traders focused on whether additional exits will follow before year-end. Iraq briefly weighed a potential withdrawal in June over production limits but affirmed it would remain while seeking higher quotas, while Venezuela has faced only speculative reports of considering departure amid its own capacity constraints. OPEC+ members have continued coordinated output decisions through September without further defections, and the group’s reduced membership has so far shown stability despite the earlier shock. With four months remaining in 2026 and no confirmed announcements of additional exits, current pricing reflects trader consensus that the organization will avoid further immediate losses.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoWill another country leave OPEC in 2026?
Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?
36% probabilità
$176,811 Vol.
$176,811 Vol.
31 dic 2026
36% probabilità
$176,811 Vol.
$176,811 Vol.
31 dic 2026
On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.The UAE’s May 2026 departure from OPEC and OPEC+—driven by long-standing quota disputes and regional tensions—has already occurred, leaving traders focused on whether additional exits will follow before year-end. Iraq briefly weighed a potential withdrawal in June over production limits but affirmed it would remain while seeking higher quotas, while Venezuela has faced only speculative reports of considering departure amid its own capacity constraints. OPEC+ members have continued coordinated output decisions through September without further defections, and the group’s reduced membership has so far shown stability despite the earlier shock. With four months remaining in 2026 and no confirmed announcements of additional exits, current pricing reflects trader consensus that the organization will avoid further immediate losses.
On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Mercato aperto: Apr 28, 2026, 1:11 PM ET
Volume
$176,811Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 28, 2026, 1:11 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.The UAE’s May 2026 departure from OPEC and OPEC+—driven by long-standing quota disputes and regional tensions—has already occurred, leaving traders focused on whether additional exits will follow before year-end. Iraq briefly weighed a potential withdrawal in June over production limits but affirmed it would remain while seeking higher quotas, while Venezuela has faced only speculative reports of considering departure amid its own capacity constraints. OPEC+ members have continued coordinated output decisions through September without further defections, and the group’s reduced membership has so far shown stability despite the earlier shock. With four months remaining in 2026 and no confirmed announcements of additional exits, current pricing reflects trader consensus that the organization will avoid further immediate losses.
On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$176,811Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 28, 2026, 1:11 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...The UAE’s May 2026 departure from OPEC and OPEC+—driven by long-standing quota disputes and regional tensions—has already occurred, leaving traders focused on whether additional exits will follow before year-end. Iraq briefly weighed a potential withdrawal in June over production limits but affirmed it would remain while seeking higher quotas, while Venezuela has faced only speculative reports of considering departure amid its own capacity constraints. OPEC+ members have continued coordinated output decisions through September without further defections, and the group’s reduced membership has so far shown stability despite the earlier shock. With four months remaining in 2026 and no confirmed announcements of additional exits, current pricing reflects trader consensus that the organization will avoid further immediate losses.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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