Recent polling averages place the PP ahead on roughly 31% of the vote and Vox near 19%, producing joint projections of 190–209 seats in the 350-seat Congress—well above the 176-seat majority threshold. This pattern has held across multiple private institutes in the final month before the November 29 snap election, with Vox showing the largest gains relative to 2023. The left bloc remains fragmented, with PSOE recovering modestly but its potential allies falling short of a blocking majority. PP and Vox have also coordinated Senate candidacies in 23 provinces to consolidate right-wing representation. These factors underpin the current trader consensus reflected in the 84% implied probability for a PP+Vox majority.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoView resolved

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