Official observations from New York-area stations, including Central Park and LaGuardia Airport, recorded a daily maximum of 61–63°F on September 28, 2026, under cloudy skies, light rain, and northerly winds that suppressed daytime warming. This placed the outcome well below the late-September climatological average high of 72°F and aligned precisely with the narrow 62–63°F bin. Market-implied odds above 99% reflect traders’ confidence in National Weather Service preliminary climatological data (CF6NYC) and hourly ASOS reports, which showed no readings exceeding the low-60s threshold. Only an improbable post-event station adjustment or measurement revision could shift the result, given consistent multi-station agreement and rapid data finalization.