Forecast models from sources including GFS and Open-Meteo indicate Munich will reach a daytime maximum near 23–24 °C on October 7 under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies, light southwesterly winds, and negligible precipitation. This places the market’s heavy weighting on 24 °C (59 % implied probability) in line with the consensus peak, while the secondary 25 °C share (25 %) captures limited upside from model spread or localized warming. The 23 °C outcome (11 %) remains plausible if afternoon cloud cover increases or steering flow shifts slightly. These probabilities aggregate trader assessments of short-range ensemble guidance ahead of the day’s resolution, with the warm anomaly relative to the 16 °C climatological normal driven by persistent mild southerly advection before a cooler, wetter pattern arrives on the 8th.