Official forecasts from Russia's Hydrometeorological Center and converging numerical models positioned Moscow's September 10 daytime high near 25°C, driven by southerly winds advecting mild air masses under light cloud cover and stable pressure near 745–746 mmHg. Real-time observations aligned with this range, producing narrow ensemble spreads around seasonal norms without strong warm advection or clear-sky heating that would push readings higher. Market-implied odds reflect this consensus, with 25°C capturing essentially all probability as the day progressed toward resolution at the official Vnukovo station. Only a late revision in the precise peak timing, local microclimate effects at the measurement site, or an unforecast boundary-layer shift could realistically alter the recorded maximum.