Recent forecasts from global models and AEMET guidance indicate a stable high-pressure ridge over the Iberian Peninsula, with clear skies and light northeasterly flow favoring a daytime high near 20–21°C in Madrid on October 9. This aligns with the climatological average of 21°C and reflects minimal warm-air advection or subsidence strengthening. Ensemble runs show low spread, with most solutions clustered between 19–22°C and negligible precipitation risk, supporting the market’s emphasis on those three outcomes. Minor model differences in boundary-layer mixing or slight timing of any ridge adjustments could nudge the peak by 1°C, but current data releases reinforce trader consensus around the narrow 20–22°C band.