Verified meteorological observations for October 9, 2026, in Buenos Aires recorded a daily maximum of 16.3°C under light showers and southeasterly flow, aligning with the market's near-certain 16°C outcome. Open-Meteo model data and station reports show this value fell within typical spring variability, cooler than the prior week's 19–22°C peaks amid persistent cloud cover and 3.4 mm of precipitation. Trader consensus reflects high-confidence post-event verification rather than forecasts, as official thresholds for resolution rely on precise maximum readings. Scenarios that could realistically alter positioning include revised station calibrations, differing measurement protocols, or localized microclimate discrepancies exceeding 1°C.