**Real-time meteorological observations and model consensus from agencies like the Turkish State Meteorological Service and international sources (e.g., Open-Meteo, NOAA-derived data) show Ankara's October 7 high stabilizing near 20–21°C under mild autumn conditions with light winds and limited cloud cover.** Hourly readings peaked around 20–21°C midday before cooling, aligning precisely with the market's dominant 20°C outcome at 100% implied probability. This reflects trader confidence in verified station data rather than forecasts, given the day's advanced stage. Historical October averages for Ankara (roughly 9–21°C) provide context but do not override current measurements. Minor resolution risk remains if the official daily maximum—typically from a specific airport or city station—registers just outside the bin due to microclimate variations or final reporting adjustments.