Traders have priced the 40-64 tweet bracket as the clear leader at 49.5% implied probability for Elon Musk’s X activity from September 10-12, reflecting his established baseline of roughly 15-25 posts per day during periods without major external catalysts. Recent activity on September 8-9 shows a steady mix of original posts, replies, and engagement on topics like X advertising, Tesla, and Grok updates, consistent with moderate volume rather than spikes seen during high-profile news cycles. Historical three-day windows without breaking events have frequently settled in the 40-89 range, and the absence of imminent product launches, regulatory developments, or controversies supports this consensus. The shorter timeframe and lack of scheduled catalysts leave room for modest variance driven by real-time responses.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato40-64 50%
65-89 28%
meno di 40 16%
90-114 7%
$49,678 Vol.
$49,678 Vol.
12 set 2026
meno di 40
16%
40-64
50%
65-89
28%
90-114
7%
115-139
1%
140-164
<1%
165-189
<1%
190-214
<1%
215-239
<1%
240+
<1%
40-64 50%
65-89 28%
meno di 40 16%
90-114 7%
$49,678 Vol.
$49,678 Vol.
12 set 2026
meno di 40
$8,689 Vol.
16%
40-64
$11,271 Vol.
50%
65-89
$11,837 Vol.
28%
90-114
$3,617 Vol.
7%
115-139
$2,262 Vol.
1%
140-164
$6,057 Vol.
<1%
165-189
$2,034 Vol.
<1%
190-214
$2,591 Vol.
<1%
215-239
$718 Vol.
<1%
240+
$618 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from September 10 12:00 PM ET to September 12, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Traders have priced the 40-64 tweet bracket as the clear leader at 49.5% implied probability for Elon Musk’s X activity from September 10-12, reflecting his established baseline of roughly 15-25 posts per day during periods without major external catalysts. Recent activity on September 8-9 shows a steady mix of original posts, replies, and engagement on topics like X advertising, Tesla, and Grok updates, consistent with moderate volume rather than spikes seen during high-profile news cycles. Historical three-day windows without breaking events have frequently settled in the 40-89 range, and the absence of imminent product launches, regulatory developments, or controversies supports this consensus. The shorter timeframe and lack of scheduled catalysts leave room for modest variance driven by real-time responses.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from September 10 12:00 PM ET to September 12, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Mercato aperto: Sep 7, 2026, 12:07 PM ET
Volume
$49,678Data di fine
12 set 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 7, 2026, 12:07 PM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://x.com/elonmuskRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from September 10 12:00 PM ET to September 12, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Traders have priced the 40-64 tweet bracket as the clear leader at 49.5% implied probability for Elon Musk’s X activity from September 10-12, reflecting his established baseline of roughly 15-25 posts per day during periods without major external catalysts. Recent activity on September 8-9 shows a steady mix of original posts, replies, and engagement on topics like X advertising, Tesla, and Grok updates, consistent with moderate volume rather than spikes seen during high-profile news cycles. Historical three-day windows without breaking events have frequently settled in the 40-89 range, and the absence of imminent product launches, regulatory developments, or controversies supports this consensus. The shorter timeframe and lack of scheduled catalysts leave room for modest variance driven by real-time responses.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from September 10 12:00 PM ET to September 12, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Volume
$49,678Data di fine
12 set 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 7, 2026, 12:07 PM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://x.com/elonmuskRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...Traders have priced the 40-64 tweet bracket as the clear leader at 49.5% implied probability for Elon Musk’s X activity from September 10-12, reflecting his established baseline of roughly 15-25 posts per day during periods without major external catalysts. Recent activity on September 8-9 shows a steady mix of original posts, replies, and engagement on topics like X advertising, Tesla, and Grok updates, consistent with moderate volume rather than spikes seen during high-profile news cycles. Historical three-day windows without breaking events have frequently settled in the 40-89 range, and the absence of imminent product launches, regulatory developments, or controversies supports this consensus. The shorter timeframe and lack of scheduled catalysts leave room for modest variance driven by real-time responses.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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