Official seismic monitoring by the USGS and global networks recorded a maximum earthquake magnitude of 5.5–5.6 on September 29, 2026, driving the 99.5% market-implied odds for that bin. This outcome aligns with the moment magnitude scale used for precise energy-release measurements and reflects typical daily global seismicity patterns, where events in this range occur regularly without triggering larger aftershocks or foreshock sequences. Trader consensus, backed by real capital, incorporates verified catalog data rather than forecasts. Revisions to initial magnitude estimates or discovery of an unreported event in a remote region remain low-probability scenarios that could shift resolution, though comprehensive station coverage makes such changes rare.