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icon for Which parties will be in the next Berlin state government?
Dunia·Berlin

Which parties will be in the next Berlin state government?

icon for Which parties will be in the next Berlin state government?
Dunia·Berlin

Which parties will be in the next Berlin state government?

BARU
Dec 31, 2026
Polymarket

$6,979 Vol.

Polymarket
icon for Grüne

Grüne

$290 Vol.

91%

icon for SPD

SPD

$279 Vol.

90%

icon for Linke

Linke

$2,269 Vol.

63%

icon for CDU

CDU

$1,602 Vol.

38%

icon for FDP

FDP

$260 Vol.

19%

icon for FW

FW

$680 Vol.

4%

icon for BSW

BSW

$330 Vol.

3%

icon for AfD

AfD

$1,269 Vol.

2%

Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Berlin state government formed after the 2026 Berlin state election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may resolve once the composition of the first Berlin state government following the 2026 state election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office. The state government is considered formed when the newly elected Abgeordnetenhaus elects the Governing Mayor. A party is considered part of the state government if it provides at least one Senator, including the Governing Mayor. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Senator post will not qualify. If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Senate of Berlin and the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin.The upcoming September 20 Berlin state election features a fragmented field where recent polls show Die Linke, CDU, AfD, and Greens clustered near the top, with SPD trailing, rendering two-party majorities improbable. The incumbent CDU-SPD coalition lacks sufficient support to continue unchanged. Trader focus centers on post-election coalition negotiations, with a Linke-Green-SPD arrangement emerging as the most viable majority option given Greens' reluctance to partner with the CDU and the established firewall excluding AfD cooperation. Recent eastern state results, including AfD gains in Saxony-Anhalt, underscore mobilization dynamics that could influence turnout and smaller-party thresholds in Berlin's proportional system. Coalition talks after results will determine final government composition amid housing, security, and fiscal pressures.

Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Berlin state government formed after the 2026 Berlin state election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market may resolve once the composition of the first Berlin state government following the 2026 state election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office.

The state government is considered formed when the newly elected Abgeordnetenhaus elects the Governing Mayor. A party is considered part of the state government if it provides at least one Senator, including the Governing Mayor. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Senator post will not qualify.

If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Senate of Berlin and the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin.Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Berlin state government formed after the 2026 Berlin state election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may resolve once the composition of the first Berlin state government following the 2026 state election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office. The state government is considered formed when the newly elected Abgeordnetenhaus elects the Governing Mayor. A party is considered part of the state government if it provides at least one Senator, including the Governing Mayor. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Senator post will not qualify. If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Senate of Berlin and the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin.
Volume
$6,979
Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Aug 20, 2026, 1:42 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Berlin state government formed after the 2026 Berlin state election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may resolve once the composition of the first Berlin state government following the 2026 state election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office. The state government is considered formed when the newly elected Abgeordnetenhaus elects the Governing Mayor. A party is considered part of the state government if it provides at least one Senator, including the Governing Mayor. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Senator post will not qualify. If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Senate of Berlin and the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin.The upcoming September 20 Berlin state election features a fragmented field where recent polls show Die Linke, CDU, AfD, and Greens clustered near the top, with SPD trailing, rendering two-party majorities improbable. The incumbent CDU-SPD coalition lacks sufficient support to continue unchanged. Trader focus centers on post-election coalition negotiations, with a Linke-Green-SPD arrangement emerging as the most viable majority option given Greens' reluctance to partner with the CDU and the established firewall excluding AfD cooperation. Recent eastern state results, including AfD gains in Saxony-Anhalt, underscore mobilization dynamics that could influence turnout and smaller-party thresholds in Berlin's proportional system. Coalition talks after results will determine final government composition amid housing, security, and fiscal pressures.

Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Berlin state government formed after the 2026 Berlin state election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market may resolve once the composition of the first Berlin state government following the 2026 state election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office.

The state government is considered formed when the newly elected Abgeordnetenhaus elects the Governing Mayor. A party is considered part of the state government if it provides at least one Senator, including the Governing Mayor. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Senator post will not qualify.

If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Senate of Berlin and the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin.Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Berlin state government formed after the 2026 Berlin state election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may resolve once the composition of the first Berlin state government following the 2026 state election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office. The state government is considered formed when the newly elected Abgeordnetenhaus elects the Governing Mayor. A party is considered part of the state government if it provides at least one Senator, including the Governing Mayor. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Senator post will not qualify. If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Senate of Berlin and the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin.
Volume
$6,979
Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Aug 20, 2026, 1:42 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

Terkait

icon for Apakah Linke akan memenangkan kursi terbanyak dalam pemilihan negara bagian Berlin 2026?

Apakah Linke akan memenangkan kursi terbanyak dalam pemilihan negara bagian Berlin 2026?

68%
Ya
icon for Will Grüne win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?

Will Grüne win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?

38%
icon for Will AfD win 35 or more seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?

Will AfD win 35 or more seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?

34%

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Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan

"Which parties will be in the next Berlin state government?" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket dengan 8 hasil yang mungkin di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham berdasarkan apa yang mereka yakini akan terjadi. Hasil terdepan saat ini adalah "Grüne" di 91%, diikuti oleh "SPD" di 90%. Harga mencerminkan probabilitas crowd-sourced real-time. Misalnya, saham yang dihargai 91¢ menyiratkan bahwa pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 91% pada hasil tersebut. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.

"Which parties will be in the next Berlin state government?" adalah pasar yang baru dibuat di Polymarket, diluncurkan pada Aug 20, 2026. Sebagai pasar awal, ini adalah kesempatanmu untuk menjadi salah satu trader pertama yang menetapkan peluang dan membangun sinyal harga awal pasar. Kamu juga bisa menandai halaman ini untuk melacak volume dan aktivitas trading seiring pasar mendapatkan traksi.

Untuk trading di "Which parties will be in the next Berlin state government?," jelajahi 8 hasil yang tersedia di halaman ini. Setiap hasil menampilkan harga saat ini yang mewakili probabilitas tersirat pasar. Untuk mengambil posisi, pilih hasil yang menurutmu paling mungkin, pilih "Ya" untuk mendukungnya atau "Tidak" untuk menentangnya, masukkan jumlahmu, dan klik "Trade." Jika hasil pilihanmu benar saat pasar diselesaikan, saham "Ya" kamu membayar $1 masing-masing. Jika salah, mereka membayar $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.

Unggulan saat ini untuk "Which parties will be in the next Berlin state government?" adalah "Grüne" di 91%, yang berarti pasar memberikan peluang 91% pada hasil tersebut. Hasil terdekat berikutnya adalah "SPD" di 90%. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time saat trader membeli dan menjual saham, sehingga mencerminkan pandangan kolektif terbaru tentang apa yang paling mungkin terjadi. Cek kembali secara rutin atau tandai halaman ini untuk mengikuti bagaimana peluang bergeser saat informasi baru muncul.

Aturan resolusi untuk "Which parties will be in the next Berlin state government?" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang — termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.