**Consistent pre-election polling placed the AfD at 17–18 percent for the September 20, 2026, Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election, nearly doubling its 9.1 percent share from the 2023 repeat vote.** This positioned the party for roughly 27–30 seats in the 130–160 seat chamber, aligning with trader consensus on the 29–31 range at over 95 percent implied probability. National momentum from AfD gains in eastern states such as Saxony-Anhalt, combined with voter concerns over immigration, housing costs, and dissatisfaction with the CDU-SPD coalition, underpinned the steady support. All other parties maintained a firewall against AfD participation in government, limiting upside scenarios. Lower turnout among AfD-leaning voters, stronger-than-expected showings by Die Linke or the CDU, or late shifts in undecided voters (often 20+ percent in final surveys) represent the main paths to outcomes outside 29–31 seats.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui29-31 95.1%
32-34 3.8%
35+ 1.7%
20-22 <1%
$99,707 Vol.
$99,707 Vol.
Sep 20, 2026
<20
<1%
20-22
1%
23-25
1%
26-28
1%
29-31
95%
32-34
4%
35+
2%
29-31 95.1%
32-34 3.8%
35+ 1.7%
20-22 <1%
$99,707 Vol.
$99,707 Vol.
Sep 20, 2026
<20
$4,664 Vol.
<1%
20-22
$8,790 Vol.
1%
23-25
$5,571 Vol.
1%
26-28
$17,032 Vol.
1%
29-31
$9,201 Vol.
95%
32-34
$16,092 Vol.
4%
35+
$38,357 Vol.
2%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the AfD party in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats officially attributed to the specified party as a result of the election. This includes all seats attributed to that party, regardless of whether they are won directly or allocated through party lists, compensatory mechanisms, or any other component of the applicable electoral system.
If the specified party contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the specified party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).**Consistent pre-election polling placed the AfD at 17–18 percent for the September 20, 2026, Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election, nearly doubling its 9.1 percent share from the 2023 repeat vote.** This positioned the party for roughly 27–30 seats in the 130–160 seat chamber, aligning with trader consensus on the 29–31 range at over 95 percent implied probability. National momentum from AfD gains in eastern states such as Saxony-Anhalt, combined with voter concerns over immigration, housing costs, and dissatisfaction with the CDU-SPD coalition, underpinned the steady support. All other parties maintained a firewall against AfD participation in government, limiting upside scenarios.
Lower turnout among AfD-leaning voters, stronger-than-expected showings by Die Linke or the CDU, or late shifts in undecided voters (often 20+ percent in final surveys) represent the main paths to outcomes outside 29–31 seats.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the AfD party in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats officially attributed to the specified party as a result of the election. This includes all seats attributed to that party, regardless of whether they are won directly or allocated through party lists, compensatory mechanisms, or any other component of the applicable electoral system.
If the specified party contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the specified party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the AfD party in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats officially attributed to the specified party as a result of the election. This includes all seats attributed to that party, regardless of whether they are won directly or allocated through party lists, compensatory mechanisms, or any other component of the applicable electoral system.
If the specified party contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the specified party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 6, 2026, 9:03 PM ET
Volume
$99,707Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 20, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 6, 2026, 9:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the AfD party in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats officially attributed to the specified party as a result of the election. This includes all seats attributed to that party, regardless of whether they are won directly or allocated through party lists, compensatory mechanisms, or any other component of the applicable electoral system.
If the specified party contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the specified party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).**Consistent pre-election polling placed the AfD at 17–18 percent for the September 20, 2026, Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election, nearly doubling its 9.1 percent share from the 2023 repeat vote.** This positioned the party for roughly 27–30 seats in the 130–160 seat chamber, aligning with trader consensus on the 29–31 range at over 95 percent implied probability. National momentum from AfD gains in eastern states such as Saxony-Anhalt, combined with voter concerns over immigration, housing costs, and dissatisfaction with the CDU-SPD coalition, underpinned the steady support. All other parties maintained a firewall against AfD participation in government, limiting upside scenarios.
Lower turnout among AfD-leaning voters, stronger-than-expected showings by Die Linke or the CDU, or late shifts in undecided voters (often 20+ percent in final surveys) represent the main paths to outcomes outside 29–31 seats.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the AfD party in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats officially attributed to the specified party as a result of the election. This includes all seats attributed to that party, regardless of whether they are won directly or allocated through party lists, compensatory mechanisms, or any other component of the applicable electoral system.
If the specified party contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the specified party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the AfD party in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats officially attributed to the specified party as a result of the election. This includes all seats attributed to that party, regardless of whether they are won directly or allocated through party lists, compensatory mechanisms, or any other component of the applicable electoral system.
If the specified party contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the specified party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Volume
$99,707Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 20, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 6, 2026, 9:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Consistent pre-election polling placed the AfD at 17–18 percent for the September 20, 2026, Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election, nearly doubling its 9.1 percent share from the 2023 repeat vote.** This positioned the party for roughly 27–30 seats in the 130–160 seat chamber, aligning with trader consensus on the 29–31 range at over 95 percent implied probability. National momentum from AfD gains in eastern states such as Saxony-Anhalt, combined with voter concerns over immigration, housing costs, and dissatisfaction with the CDU-SPD coalition, underpinned the steady support. All other parties maintained a firewall against AfD participation in government, limiting upside scenarios. Lower turnout among AfD-leaning voters, stronger-than-expected showings by Die Linke or the CDU, or late shifts in undecided voters (often 20+ percent in final surveys) represent the main paths to outcomes outside 29–31 seats.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan