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icon for OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?

OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?

icon for OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?

OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?

18% peluang
Polymarket

$271,799 Vol.

18% peluang
Polymarket

$271,799 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or an official representative of the company announces that it has created an artificial general intelligence (AGI) by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and/or its official representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**Strong trader consensus against an imminent announcement reflects OpenAI’s consistent emphasis on internal milestones and safety work rather than a formal public declaration of AGI.** In late August 2026, CEO Sam Altman stated the company expects an internal system meeting its AGI definition—highly autonomous systems outperforming humans on most economically valuable tasks—by year-end, while noting it was “not quite yet” there; Chief Research Officer Mark Chen placed progress at roughly 80%. The September 3 launch of GPT-6 Astra prompted comments from President Greg Brockman about entering the “AGI era,” yet OpenAI has avoided charter-level claims, and external benchmarks like ARC-AGI showed discrepancies between company and standard harness results. Recent agent-related security incidents have reinforced a deliberate pace, with Altman citing safety concerns for delaying an IPO until 2027. With only months remaining and internal targets distinguishing an automated research intern (already met) from a full automated researcher (targeted for 2028), traders view a definitive public announcement as unlikely before the deadline.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or an official representative of the company announces that it has created an artificial general intelligence (AGI) by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and/or its official representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or an official representative of the company announces that it has created an artificial general intelligence (AGI) by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and/or its official representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$271,799
Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027
Pasar Dibuka
Oct 28, 2025, 11:01 AM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or an official representative of the company announces that it has created an artificial general intelligence (AGI) by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and/or its official representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**Strong trader consensus against an imminent announcement reflects OpenAI’s consistent emphasis on internal milestones and safety work rather than a formal public declaration of AGI.** In late August 2026, CEO Sam Altman stated the company expects an internal system meeting its AGI definition—highly autonomous systems outperforming humans on most economically valuable tasks—by year-end, while noting it was “not quite yet” there; Chief Research Officer Mark Chen placed progress at roughly 80%. The September 3 launch of GPT-6 Astra prompted comments from President Greg Brockman about entering the “AGI era,” yet OpenAI has avoided charter-level claims, and external benchmarks like ARC-AGI showed discrepancies between company and standard harness results. Recent agent-related security incidents have reinforced a deliberate pace, with Altman citing safety concerns for delaying an IPO until 2027. With only months remaining and internal targets distinguishing an automated research intern (already met) from a full automated researcher (targeted for 2028), traders view a definitive public announcement as unlikely before the deadline.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or an official representative of the company announces that it has created an artificial general intelligence (AGI) by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and/or its official representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or an official representative of the company announces that it has created an artificial general intelligence (AGI) by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and/or its official representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$271,799
Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027
Pasar Dibuka
Oct 28, 2025, 11:01 AM ET

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Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan

"OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham "Ya" atau "Tidak" berdasarkan apakah mereka yakin event ini akan terjadi. Probabilitas crowd-sourced saat ini adalah 18% untuk "Yes." Misalnya, jika "Ya" dihargai 18¢, pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 18% bahwa event ini akan terjadi. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.

Per hari ini, "OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?" telah menghasilkan $271.8K dalam total volume trading sejak pasar diluncurkan pada Oct 28, 2025. Tingkat aktivitas trading ini mencerminkan keterlibatan kuat dari komunitas Polymarket dan membantu memastikan bahwa peluang saat ini diinformasikan oleh kumpulan besar peserta pasar. Kamu bisa melacak pergerakan harga langsung dan trading di hasil apa pun langsung di halaman ini.

Untuk trading di "OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?," cukup pilih apakah kamu yakin jawabannya "Ya" atau "Tidak." Setiap sisi memiliki harga saat ini yang mencerminkan probabilitas tersirat pasar. Masukkan jumlah kamu dan klik "Trade." Jika kamu membeli saham "Ya" dan hasilnya diselesaikan sebagai "Ya," setiap saham membayar $1. Jika diselesaikan sebagai "Tidak," saham "Ya" kamu bernilai $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.

Probabilitas saat ini untuk "OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?" adalah 18% untuk "Yes." Ini berarti keramaian Polymarket saat ini percaya ada peluang 18% bahwa event ini akan terjadi. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time berdasarkan trade aktual, memberikan sinyal yang terus diperbarui tentang apa yang diharapkan pasar.

Aturan resolusi untuk "OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang — termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.