Chris Smith’s long incumbency since 1981 and the New Jersey 4th district’s solid Republican tilt, rated R+14 on the Cook Partisan Voting Index and viewed as safe or solid Republican by forecasters, underpin the overwhelming trader consensus for his re-election. Smith won his 2024 general election by more than 35 points in this Monmouth and Ocean counties seat and faced no primary opposition in 2026, while Democrat Rachel Peace advanced from a low-turnout primary with limited fundraising. The general election matchup has produced no major shifts in polling, endorsements, or campaign dynamics since June, leaving little basis for traders to assign meaningful probability to an upset. A late national wave, unexpected scandal, or health event could still alter the outcome before November 3.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiNJ-04 House Election Winner
NJ-04 House Election Winner
$19,141 Vol.
$19,141 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Chris Smith (R)
96%
Rachel Peace (D)
5%
$19,141 Vol.
$19,141 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Chris Smith (R)
$6,168 Vol.
96%
Rachel Peace (D)
$12,973 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Chris Smith’s long incumbency since 1981 and the New Jersey 4th district’s solid Republican tilt, rated R+14 on the Cook Partisan Voting Index and viewed as safe or solid Republican by forecasters, underpin the overwhelming trader consensus for his re-election. Smith won his 2024 general election by more than 35 points in this Monmouth and Ocean counties seat and faced no primary opposition in 2026, while Democrat Rachel Peace advanced from a low-turnout primary with limited fundraising. The general election matchup has produced no major shifts in polling, endorsements, or campaign dynamics since June, leaving little basis for traders to assign meaningful probability to an upset. A late national wave, unexpected scandal, or health event could still alter the outcome before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Pasar Dibuka: Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
Volume
$19,141Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 3, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Chris Smith’s long incumbency since 1981 and the New Jersey 4th district’s solid Republican tilt, rated R+14 on the Cook Partisan Voting Index and viewed as safe or solid Republican by forecasters, underpin the overwhelming trader consensus for his re-election. Smith won his 2024 general election by more than 35 points in this Monmouth and Ocean counties seat and faced no primary opposition in 2026, while Democrat Rachel Peace advanced from a low-turnout primary with limited fundraising. The general election matchup has produced no major shifts in polling, endorsements, or campaign dynamics since June, leaving little basis for traders to assign meaningful probability to an upset. A late national wave, unexpected scandal, or health event could still alter the outcome before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$19,141Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 3, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Chris Smith’s long incumbency since 1981 and the New Jersey 4th district’s solid Republican tilt, rated R+14 on the Cook Partisan Voting Index and viewed as safe or solid Republican by forecasters, underpin the overwhelming trader consensus for his re-election. Smith won his 2024 general election by more than 35 points in this Monmouth and Ocean counties seat and faced no primary opposition in 2026, while Democrat Rachel Peace advanced from a low-turnout primary with limited fundraising. The general election matchup has produced no major shifts in polling, endorsements, or campaign dynamics since June, leaving little basis for traders to assign meaningful probability to an upset. A late national wave, unexpected scandal, or health event could still alter the outcome before November 3.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan