Recent polling averages project Likud securing roughly 21–23 Knesset seats in the October 27 election, well below its 32-seat result from the previous cycle. This reflects voter shifts tied to prolonged conflicts in Gaza, Lebanon, and Iran, which have weighed on Prime Minister Netanyahu’s approval and the party’s standing. Newer lists such as Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party have drawn support in the mid-20s, while bloc totals for the current governing parties hover near or below 53 seats across most surveys. Traders appear to price the 91.5% implied probability for seat losses on this consistent gap between historical performance and present survey results, with limited late-campaign catalysts yet evident to reverse the trend.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui92% peluang
$18,409 Vol.
$18,409 Vol.
Jun 30, 2027
92% peluang
$18,409 Vol.
$18,409 Vol.
Jun 30, 2027
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).Recent polling averages project Likud securing roughly 21–23 Knesset seats in the October 27 election, well below its 32-seat result from the previous cycle. This reflects voter shifts tied to prolonged conflicts in Gaza, Lebanon, and Iran, which have weighed on Prime Minister Netanyahu’s approval and the party’s standing. Newer lists such as Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party have drawn support in the mid-20s, while bloc totals for the current governing parties hover near or below 53 seats across most surveys. Traders appear to price the 91.5% implied probability for seat losses on this consistent gap between historical performance and present survey results, with limited late-campaign catalysts yet evident to reverse the trend.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Pasar Dibuka: Apr 29, 2026, 7:37 PM ET
Volume
$18,409Tanggal Berakhir
Jul 1, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Apr 29, 2026, 7:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).Recent polling averages project Likud securing roughly 21–23 Knesset seats in the October 27 election, well below its 32-seat result from the previous cycle. This reflects voter shifts tied to prolonged conflicts in Gaza, Lebanon, and Iran, which have weighed on Prime Minister Netanyahu’s approval and the party’s standing. Newer lists such as Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party have drawn support in the mid-20s, while bloc totals for the current governing parties hover near or below 53 seats across most surveys. Traders appear to price the 91.5% implied probability for seat losses on this consistent gap between historical performance and present survey results, with limited late-campaign catalysts yet evident to reverse the trend.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Volume
$18,409Tanggal Berakhir
Jul 1, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Apr 29, 2026, 7:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent polling averages project Likud securing roughly 21–23 Knesset seats in the October 27 election, well below its 32-seat result from the previous cycle. This reflects voter shifts tied to prolonged conflicts in Gaza, Lebanon, and Iran, which have weighed on Prime Minister Netanyahu’s approval and the party’s standing. Newer lists such as Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party have drawn support in the mid-20s, while bloc totals for the current governing parties hover near or below 53 seats across most surveys. Traders appear to price the 91.5% implied probability for seat losses on this consistent gap between historical performance and present survey results, with limited late-campaign catalysts yet evident to reverse the trend.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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