Iran's continued insistence on its right to uranium enrichment, combined with stalled U.S. negotiations and the IAEA's September 9 referral of Tehran to the UN Security Council for non-cooperation, underpins trader expectations that no agreement to end enrichment will occur by September 30. Facilities damaged in 2025 strikes remain inaccessible to inspectors, leaving the stockpile of 60% enriched uranium unverified and the status quo intact under the June MoU framework. Recent IAEA reports highlight persistent verification gaps and Iran's rejection of full transparency, with no breakthrough reported in the months since the 60-day negotiation window. While a late diplomatic concession or sudden IAEA access could theoretically shift the timeline, the pattern of non-compliance and institutional escalation makes such outcomes improbable within the narrow remaining window.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiIran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by September 30?
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by September 30?
2% peluang
$64,708 Vol.
$64,708 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
2% peluang
$64,708 Vol.
$64,708 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Iran's continued insistence on its right to uranium enrichment, combined with stalled U.S. negotiations and the IAEA's September 9 referral of Tehran to the UN Security Council for non-cooperation, underpins trader expectations that no agreement to end enrichment will occur by September 30. Facilities damaged in 2025 strikes remain inaccessible to inspectors, leaving the stockpile of 60% enriched uranium unverified and the status quo intact under the June MoU framework. Recent IAEA reports highlight persistent verification gaps and Iran's rejection of full transparency, with no breakthrough reported in the months since the 60-day negotiation window. While a late diplomatic concession or sudden IAEA access could theoretically shift the timeline, the pattern of non-compliance and institutional escalation makes such outcomes improbable within the narrow remaining window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Pasar Dibuka: Jul 9, 2026, 9:43 AM ET
Volume
$64,708Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 30, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 9, 2026, 9:43 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Iran's continued insistence on its right to uranium enrichment, combined with stalled U.S. negotiations and the IAEA's September 9 referral of Tehran to the UN Security Council for non-cooperation, underpins trader expectations that no agreement to end enrichment will occur by September 30. Facilities damaged in 2025 strikes remain inaccessible to inspectors, leaving the stockpile of 60% enriched uranium unverified and the status quo intact under the June MoU framework. Recent IAEA reports highlight persistent verification gaps and Iran's rejection of full transparency, with no breakthrough reported in the months since the 60-day negotiation window. While a late diplomatic concession or sudden IAEA access could theoretically shift the timeline, the pattern of non-compliance and institutional escalation makes such outcomes improbable within the narrow remaining window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$64,708Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 30, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 9, 2026, 9:43 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran's continued insistence on its right to uranium enrichment, combined with stalled U.S. negotiations and the IAEA's September 9 referral of Tehran to the UN Security Council for non-cooperation, underpins trader expectations that no agreement to end enrichment will occur by September 30. Facilities damaged in 2025 strikes remain inaccessible to inspectors, leaving the stockpile of 60% enriched uranium unverified and the status quo intact under the June MoU framework. Recent IAEA reports highlight persistent verification gaps and Iran's rejection of full transparency, with no breakthrough reported in the months since the 60-day negotiation window. While a late diplomatic concession or sudden IAEA access could theoretically shift the timeline, the pattern of non-compliance and institutional escalation makes such outcomes improbable within the narrow remaining window.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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