Forecast models from sources including GFS and Open-Meteo indicate a daytime maximum in Madrid on October 2 near 23–25°C under partly cloudy skies with scattered thunderstorms and light easterly winds. This consensus, shaped by typical early-autumn Atlantic moisture and regional pressure gradients, positions 25°C and 26°C or higher as the leading market-implied outcomes. Afternoon clearing or reduced precipitation could allow brief warming toward the upper end of the range, while persistent cloud cover or heavier rain would cap readings closer to 23–24°C. Updated model runs through early October 2 continue to support this narrow band, with limited divergence among ensembles.