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icon for Berlin State Election: More Votes to AfD or SPD?
Dunia·Berlin

Berlin State Election: More Votes to AfD or SPD?

icon for Berlin State Election: More Votes to AfD or SPD?
Dunia·Berlin

Berlin State Election: More Votes to AfD or SPD?

AfD

72% peluang
Polymarket
BARU

AfD

72% peluang
Polymarket
BARU
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to “AfD” if AfD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than SPD in the specified election. This market will resolve to “SPD” if SPD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than AfD in the specified election. This market will resolve 50-50 if both AfD and SPD receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election. This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party. Valid second votes will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent polling ahead of the September 20 Berlin state election shows the AfD consistently ahead of the SPD in projected vote share, with the AfD near 17–18 percent and the SPD at 11–15 percent across multiple surveys. This gap reflects the SPD’s weakened position as junior partner in the outgoing CDU-led coalition, including internal pressure on its lead candidate and limited momentum in the capital. The AfD has maintained stable support amid national trends and its recent strong result in Saxony-Anhalt, positioning it well ahead in the direct comparison of the two parties’ totals. With ten days remaining, no major late shifts have narrowed the margin in available data, supporting the current trader consensus on the AfD receiving more votes.

Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.

This market will resolve to “AfD” if AfD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than SPD in the specified election.

This market will resolve to “SPD” if SPD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than AfD in the specified election.

This market will resolve 50-50 if both AfD and SPD receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.

This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party.

Valid second votes will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to “AfD” if AfD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than SPD in the specified election. This market will resolve to “SPD” if SPD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than AfD in the specified election. This market will resolve 50-50 if both AfD and SPD receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election. This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party. Valid second votes will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Volume
$2,139
Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 20, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Aug 20, 2026, 2:17 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to “AfD” if AfD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than SPD in the specified election. This market will resolve to “SPD” if SPD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than AfD in the specified election. This market will resolve 50-50 if both AfD and SPD receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election. This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party. Valid second votes will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent polling ahead of the September 20 Berlin state election shows the AfD consistently ahead of the SPD in projected vote share, with the AfD near 17–18 percent and the SPD at 11–15 percent across multiple surveys. This gap reflects the SPD’s weakened position as junior partner in the outgoing CDU-led coalition, including internal pressure on its lead candidate and limited momentum in the capital. The AfD has maintained stable support amid national trends and its recent strong result in Saxony-Anhalt, positioning it well ahead in the direct comparison of the two parties’ totals. With ten days remaining, no major late shifts have narrowed the margin in available data, supporting the current trader consensus on the AfD receiving more votes.

Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.

This market will resolve to “AfD” if AfD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than SPD in the specified election.

This market will resolve to “SPD” if SPD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than AfD in the specified election.

This market will resolve 50-50 if both AfD and SPD receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.

This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party.

Valid second votes will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to “AfD” if AfD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than SPD in the specified election. This market will resolve to “SPD” if SPD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than AfD in the specified election. This market will resolve 50-50 if both AfD and SPD receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election. This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party. Valid second votes will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Volume
$2,139
Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 20, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Aug 20, 2026, 2:17 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

Terkait

icon for Berlin State Election: More Votes to CDU or SPD?

Berlin State Election: More Votes to CDU or SPD?

95%
CDU
icon for Berlin State Election: More Votes to AfD or Grüne?

Berlin State Election: More Votes to AfD or Grüne?

70%
AfD
icon for Berlin State Election: More Votes to Linke or SPD?

Berlin State Election: More Votes to Linke or SPD?

95%
Linke

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Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan

"Berlin State Election: More Votes to AfD or SPD?" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket dengan 2 hasil yang mungkin di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham berdasarkan apa yang mereka yakini akan terjadi. Hasil terdepan saat ini adalah "Berlin State Election: More Votes to AfD or SPD?" di 72%. Harga mencerminkan probabilitas crowd-sourced real-time. Misalnya, saham yang dihargai 72¢ menyiratkan bahwa pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 72% pada hasil tersebut. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.

"Berlin State Election: More Votes to AfD or SPD?" adalah pasar yang baru dibuat di Polymarket, diluncurkan pada Aug 20, 2026. Sebagai pasar awal, ini adalah kesempatanmu untuk menjadi salah satu trader pertama yang menetapkan peluang dan membangun sinyal harga awal pasar. Kamu juga bisa menandai halaman ini untuk melacak volume dan aktivitas trading seiring pasar mendapatkan traksi.

Untuk trading di "Berlin State Election: More Votes to AfD or SPD?," jelajahi 2 hasil yang tersedia di halaman ini. Setiap hasil menampilkan harga saat ini yang mewakili probabilitas tersirat pasar. Untuk mengambil posisi, pilih hasil yang menurutmu paling mungkin, pilih "Ya" untuk mendukungnya atau "Tidak" untuk menentangnya, masukkan jumlahmu, dan klik "Trade." Jika hasil pilihanmu benar saat pasar diselesaikan, saham "Ya" kamu membayar $1 masing-masing. Jika salah, mereka membayar $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.

Unggulan saat ini untuk "Berlin State Election: More Votes to AfD or SPD?" adalah "Berlin State Election: More Votes to AfD or SPD?" di 72%, yang berarti pasar memberikan peluang 72% pada hasil tersebut. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time saat trader membeli dan menjual saham, sehingga mencerminkan pandangan kolektif terbaru tentang apa yang paling mungkin terjadi. Cek kembali secara rutin atau tandai halaman ini untuk mengikuti bagaimana peluang bergeser saat informasi baru muncul.

Aturan resolusi untuk "Berlin State Election: More Votes to AfD or SPD?" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang — termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.