Recent data showing accelerated underlying inflation to 5–6% annualized, driven largely by temporary fuel supply disruptions and elevated credit growth, prompted the Bank of Russia to hold its key rate at 14% on 11 September after a series of cuts. Officials cited the need for more evidence on second-round effects and inflation expectations before resuming easing, while flagging risks from a potentially more expansionary fiscal stance ahead of updated budget projections. The October 23 meeting will incorporate those parameters and fresh price data, supporting trader consensus for no change as the baseline while leaving limited room for a cut if disinflation proves durable. An increase remains unlikely absent major external shocks.