Zohran Mamdani, the naturalized U.S. citizen and sitting New York City mayor, faces calls for denaturalization proceedings tied to his 2018 application and prior political statements. Trader consensus at 99.7% against revocation before 2027 stems from the narrow statutory grounds for denaturalization, which require federal court proof of material fraud or willful concealment meeting a high evidentiary bar, rather than policy disagreements or associations. Such actions remain rare outside cases involving terrorism or proven wartime misconduct, with no verified basis emerging in public records despite 2025 congressional inquiries. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include discovery of undisclosed disqualifying facts triggering DOJ action or an unexpected judicial ruling within the short window, though both face substantial procedural and constitutional hurdles.