Blue Origin’s January 2026 decision to pause New Shepard suborbital flights for at least two years—redirecting staff and resources to New Glenn and Blue Moon lunar lander development—has anchored trader expectations that Bezos will not reach space again before 2028. His sole prior flight occurred on the same vehicle in 2021, and no crewed orbital or alternative-vehicle opportunities for the founder have been announced. With the pause extending into late 2027 or beyond, and Blue Origin prioritizing uncrewed lunar cargo demos targeted for 2026–2027 plus potential crewed Artemis support later in the decade, the 75% market-implied probability for “No” reflects the absence of near-term flight windows and the company’s stated lunar focus. New data releases on New Glenn manifest updates or any Bezos-specific crew announcements could shift sentiment ahead of resolution.