In late July 2026, Hamas accepted a US-backed roadmap under the Board of Peace for phased disarmament in Gaza, including inventorying and storing heavy weapons under Palestinian oversight, as part of implementing the second phase of a Trump-brokered ceasefire. The framework links weapons decommissioning, tunnel destruction, and governance transition to Israeli military withdrawal, deployment of an International Stabilization Force, and reconstruction, with mediators including Egypt, Qatar, and Turkey facilitating talks in Cairo. Israel has withheld endorsement, insisting on complete, verifiable demilitarization before any pullback from positions such as the Yellow Line, while Hamas conditions further steps on full Israeli compliance and rejects handing arms to non-Palestinian parties. US envoys have since pressed for strict verification amid reports of potential evasion. Implementation timelines, sequencing disputes, and verification mechanisms remain central variables for any near-term resolution on disarmament.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाIsraeli strike kills Hamas military wing commander in Gaza
December 31, 2026 rises to 21%1%
An Israeli airstrike killed Adel Jihad Mohammad Asfour, a platoon commander in Hamas’s military wing, signaling ongoing conflict and weakening Hamas's military leadership. This event underscored the continued hostilities and lack of progress on disarmament, contributing to the market's low confidence in Hamas disarming by the end of 2026.
Israeli strikes continue in Gaza despite ceasefire, killing Hamas fighters
December 31, 2026 plunges to 14%21%
Despite the ceasefire agreement, Israel continued military strikes in Gaza, killing several Hamas fighters on July 1. These ongoing hostilities and Israel's refusal to fully withdraw have stalled peace plan progress and disarmament talks, reducing market confidence that Hamas will officially disarm by the end of 2025.




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