The 5-year Treasury yield, recently trading near 4.86% as of mid-September 2026, reflects a market-implied path shaped primarily by persistent inflation and a hawkish Federal Reserve stance under Chair Kevin Warsh. Sticky core PCE near 3.3% and CPI around 3.4%, alongside resilient labor data with unemployment at 4.1%, have shifted trader consensus toward fewer rate cuts or potential hikes, elevating real yields and term premium. Heavy Treasury issuance amid fiscal deficits, plus geopolitical energy risks and AI-driven capital demand, further anchor yields higher than a year ago. Key near-term catalysts include the October FOMC meeting, September employment report, and upcoming PCE prints, which could alter the rate path priced into intermediate maturities.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया$25,264 वॉल्यूम
30 दिस, 2026
4.50% से नीचे
70%
4.45% के नीचे
69%
4.40% से नीचे
43%
4.35% से नीचे
35%
4.30% के नीचे
22%
4.25% से नीचे
19%
4.20% से नीचे
11%
4.10% से नीचे
12%
4.00% से नीचे
9%
$25,264 वॉल्यूम
4.50% से नीचे
$1,495 वॉल्यूम
70%
4.45% के नीचे
$2,866 वॉल्यूम
69%
4.40% से नीचे
$1,894 वॉल्यूम
43%
4.35% से नीचे
$3,226 वॉल्यूम
35%
4.30% के नीचे
$2,642 वॉल्यूम
22%
4.25% से नीचे
$834 वॉल्यूम
19%
4.20% से नीचे
$4,013 वॉल्यूम
11%
4.10% से नीचे
$6,694 वॉल्यूम
12%
4.00% से नीचे
$1,600 वॉल्यूम
9%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).The 5-year Treasury yield, recently trading near 4.86% as of mid-September 2026, reflects a market-implied path shaped primarily by persistent inflation and a hawkish Federal Reserve stance under Chair Kevin Warsh. Sticky core PCE near 3.3% and CPI around 3.4%, alongside resilient labor data with unemployment at 4.1%, have shifted trader consensus toward fewer rate cuts or potential hikes, elevating real yields and term premium. Heavy Treasury issuance amid fiscal deficits, plus geopolitical energy risks and AI-driven capital demand, further anchor yields higher than a year ago. Key near-term catalysts include the October FOMC meeting, September employment report, and upcoming PCE prints, which could alter the rate path priced into intermediate maturities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
बाज़ार खुला: Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$25,264समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).The 5-year Treasury yield, recently trading near 4.86% as of mid-September 2026, reflects a market-implied path shaped primarily by persistent inflation and a hawkish Federal Reserve stance under Chair Kevin Warsh. Sticky core PCE near 3.3% and CPI around 3.4%, alongside resilient labor data with unemployment at 4.1%, have shifted trader consensus toward fewer rate cuts or potential hikes, elevating real yields and term premium. Heavy Treasury issuance amid fiscal deficits, plus geopolitical energy risks and AI-driven capital demand, further anchor yields higher than a year ago. Key near-term catalysts include the October FOMC meeting, September employment report, and upcoming PCE prints, which could alter the rate path priced into intermediate maturities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
वॉल्यूम
$25,264समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x65070BE91...The 5-year Treasury yield, recently trading near 4.86% as of mid-September 2026, reflects a market-implied path shaped primarily by persistent inflation and a hawkish Federal Reserve stance under Chair Kevin Warsh. Sticky core PCE near 3.3% and CPI around 3.4%, alongside resilient labor data with unemployment at 4.1%, have shifted trader consensus toward fewer rate cuts or potential hikes, elevating real yields and term premium. Heavy Treasury issuance amid fiscal deficits, plus geopolitical energy risks and AI-driven capital demand, further anchor yields higher than a year ago. Key near-term catalysts include the October FOMC meeting, September employment report, and upcoming PCE prints, which could alter the rate path priced into intermediate maturities.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
अक्सर पूछे जाने वाले प्रश्न