**Hawaii’s 2026 gubernatorial general election on November 3 features incumbent Democrat Josh Green in a heavily favored rematch against Republican Gary Cordery in a low-competition midterm without a presidential or Senate contest on the ballot.** Registered voters stand near 788,000–846,000. Primary turnout reached only about 33%, consistent with the 2024 primary and reflecting ongoing voter apathy, limited top-of-ticket excitement, and recent political controversies that analysts link to reduced participation. Historical midterm general-election turnout in the state has ranged 40–50%, producing roughly 400,000–430,000 ballots in recent cycles. Traders have priced the 400K–430K range as the modal outcome, with nearby bins capturing the balance, consistent with expectations for subdued engagement in a non-competitive statewide race. No major late-cycle developments have shifted these baseline assessments.