The redrawn Florida congressional map, enacted by Gov. Ron DeSantis and the Republican legislature, forms the core driver behind trader positioning in the FL-09 race. The new lines added rural, Trump-supporting areas including all of Indian River County, shifting the district to roughly 58% Trump support from 2024 and rating it Likely Republican by Cook Political Report and similar analysts. This structural change has placed five-term Democratic incumbent Darren Soto on defense against Republican Dan Green, a Navy veteran and former Trump administration official who prevailed in an August primary. Soto has outraised Green in recent quarters with strong small-donor support, yet forecasts and market consensus reflect the map's enduring Republican tilt ahead of the November 3 general election.