Extensive monitoring by NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and ESA’s NEO Coordination Centre has identified no catalogued near-Earth asteroids or comets on collision courses capable of yielding a 100-kiloton or greater atmospheric airburst in 2026. Risk lists show only distant, low-probability threats years or decades ahead, while 2026 impacts detected to date involve meter-scale objects far below the energy threshold. Historical frequency of such events remains low—roughly once per several decades—reinforcing the market-implied 96.8% probability of “No.” With three months remaining, continued survey data releases and fireball repository updates could confirm the outcome, though an undetected small impactor represents the primary residual uncertainty.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया100kt meteor strike in 2026?
100kt meteor strike in 2026?
3% संभावना
नया
नया
28 फ़र, 2027
3% संभावना
नया
नया
28 फ़र, 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Extensive monitoring by NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and ESA’s NEO Coordination Centre has identified no catalogued near-Earth asteroids or comets on collision courses capable of yielding a 100-kiloton or greater atmospheric airburst in 2026. Risk lists show only distant, low-probability threats years or decades ahead, while 2026 impacts detected to date involve meter-scale objects far below the energy threshold. Historical frequency of such events remains low—roughly once per several decades—reinforcing the market-implied 96.8% probability of “No.” With three months remaining, continued survey data releases and fireball repository updates could confirm the outcome, though an undetected small impactor represents the primary residual uncertainty.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
बाज़ार खुला: Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$8,956समाप्ति तिथि
1 मार्च, 2027बाज़ार खुला
Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Extensive monitoring by NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and ESA’s NEO Coordination Centre has identified no catalogued near-Earth asteroids or comets on collision courses capable of yielding a 100-kiloton or greater atmospheric airburst in 2026. Risk lists show only distant, low-probability threats years or decades ahead, while 2026 impacts detected to date involve meter-scale objects far below the energy threshold. Historical frequency of such events remains low—roughly once per several decades—reinforcing the market-implied 96.8% probability of “No.” With three months remaining, continued survey data releases and fireball repository updates could confirm the outcome, though an undetected small impactor represents the primary residual uncertainty.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
वॉल्यूम
$8,956समाप्ति तिथि
1 मार्च, 2027बाज़ार खुला
Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x65070BE91...Extensive monitoring by NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and ESA’s NEO Coordination Centre has identified no catalogued near-Earth asteroids or comets on collision courses capable of yielding a 100-kiloton or greater atmospheric airburst in 2026. Risk lists show only distant, low-probability threats years or decades ahead, while 2026 impacts detected to date involve meter-scale objects far below the energy threshold. Historical frequency of such events remains low—roughly once per several decades—reinforcing the market-implied 96.8% probability of “No.” With three months remaining, continued survey data releases and fireball repository updates could confirm the outcome, though an undetected small impactor represents the primary residual uncertainty.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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