Near-certain trader consensus on no 1-megaton meteor strike in 2026 stems from continuous near-Earth object monitoring by NASA and international observatories, which have detected no asteroid or comet of the required roughly 50-meter size on an Earth-intercept trajectory for the remainder of the year. Ongoing surveys using ground- and space-based telescopes, combined with orbital modeling, show no credible impactors matching the energy threshold, supporting the 98.6% implied probability. Realistic scenarios that could still shift outcomes remain limited but include a previously undetected small object arriving from a blind spot in current coverage or an unexpected fragmentation event altering an existing trajectory; however, such cases would require rapid confirmation through additional observations before resolution criteria are met.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया2026 में 1 मेगाटन उल्का हड़ताल?
2026 में 1 मेगाटन उल्का हड़ताल?
हाँ
2% संभावना
$117,333 वॉल्यूम
$117,333 वॉल्यूम
28 फ़र, 2027
हाँ
2% संभावना
$117,333 वॉल्यूम
$117,333 वॉल्यूम
28 फ़र, 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Near-certain trader consensus on no 1-megaton meteor strike in 2026 stems from continuous near-Earth object monitoring by NASA and international observatories, which have detected no asteroid or comet of the required roughly 50-meter size on an Earth-intercept trajectory for the remainder of the year. Ongoing surveys using ground- and space-based telescopes, combined with orbital modeling, show no credible impactors matching the energy threshold, supporting the 98.6% implied probability. Realistic scenarios that could still shift outcomes remain limited but include a previously undetected small object arriving from a blind spot in current coverage or an unexpected fragmentation event altering an existing trajectory; however, such cases would require rapid confirmation through additional observations before resolution criteria are met.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
बाज़ार खुला: Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$117,333समाप्ति तिथि
1 मार्च, 2027बाज़ार खुला
Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Near-certain trader consensus on no 1-megaton meteor strike in 2026 stems from continuous near-Earth object monitoring by NASA and international observatories, which have detected no asteroid or comet of the required roughly 50-meter size on an Earth-intercept trajectory for the remainder of the year. Ongoing surveys using ground- and space-based telescopes, combined with orbital modeling, show no credible impactors matching the energy threshold, supporting the 98.6% implied probability. Realistic scenarios that could still shift outcomes remain limited but include a previously undetected small object arriving from a blind spot in current coverage or an unexpected fragmentation event altering an existing trajectory; however, such cases would require rapid confirmation through additional observations before resolution criteria are met.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
वॉल्यूम
$117,333समाप्ति तिथि
1 मार्च, 2027बाज़ार खुला
Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x65070BE91...Near-certain trader consensus on no 1-megaton meteor strike in 2026 stems from continuous near-Earth object monitoring by NASA and international observatories, which have detected no asteroid or comet of the required roughly 50-meter size on an Earth-intercept trajectory for the remainder of the year. Ongoing surveys using ground- and space-based telescopes, combined with orbital modeling, show no credible impactors matching the energy threshold, supporting the 98.6% implied probability. Realistic scenarios that could still shift outcomes remain limited but include a previously undetected small object arriving from a blind spot in current coverage or an unexpected fragmentation event altering an existing trajectory; however, such cases would require rapid confirmation through additional observations before resolution criteria are met.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
अक्सर पूछे जाने वाले प्रश्न