Ongoing state antitrust litigation remains the dominant factor behind the 76.3% market-implied probability that Paramount Skydance will not close its Warner Bros. Discovery acquisition by year-end 2026. In July 2026, twelve states filed suit alleging reduced competition in film, streaming, and television distribution, prompting a federal judge to issue a temporary restraining order and leading the parties to stipulate a delay of closing until a merits ruling or June 1, 2027, whichever occurs first. The full trial is now scheduled to conclude in April 2027. Although the DOJ cleared the transaction in June and most international regulators have approved it, the binding court schedule and active litigation create substantial barriers to any 2026 resolution. Key upcoming catalysts include September 2026 hearings on bond requests and potential state withdrawals that could narrow the plaintiff group.