Amanda McKinney secured the Republican nomination in Washington’s 4th Congressional District after winning the August 2026 top-two primary with 35% of the vote in the open seat race to succeed retiring Rep. Dan Newhouse. The district’s consistent Republican tilt, reflected in strong past performance by GOP candidates, combined with McKinney’s endorsements from President Trump and House leadership, plus substantial fundraising and outside support, has produced the current trader consensus favoring her at 92%. Democrat John Duresky, the sole major-party challenger who advanced with 31%, faces structural headwinds in a seat where Republicans have held large margins. A shift would require unusually high Democratic turnout, a major late-breaking development, or significant erosion of McKinney’s base in the final weeks before the November 3 general election.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourWA-04 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
WA-04 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
$57,658 Vol.
$57,658 Vol.
3 nov. 2026
Amanda McKinney (R)
92%
John Duresky (D)
7%
$57,658 Vol.
$57,658 Vol.
3 nov. 2026
Amanda McKinney (R)
$30,926 Vol.
92%
John Duresky (D)
$26,732 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Amanda McKinney secured the Republican nomination in Washington’s 4th Congressional District after winning the August 2026 top-two primary with 35% of the vote in the open seat race to succeed retiring Rep. Dan Newhouse. The district’s consistent Republican tilt, reflected in strong past performance by GOP candidates, combined with McKinney’s endorsements from President Trump and House leadership, plus substantial fundraising and outside support, has produced the current trader consensus favoring her at 92%. Democrat John Duresky, the sole major-party challenger who advanced with 31%, faces structural headwinds in a seat where Republicans have held large margins. A shift would require unusually high Democratic turnout, a major late-breaking development, or significant erosion of McKinney’s base in the final weeks before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Marché ouvert : Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$57,658Date de fin
4 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETRésolveur
0x2f5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Amanda McKinney secured the Republican nomination in Washington’s 4th Congressional District after winning the August 2026 top-two primary with 35% of the vote in the open seat race to succeed retiring Rep. Dan Newhouse. The district’s consistent Republican tilt, reflected in strong past performance by GOP candidates, combined with McKinney’s endorsements from President Trump and House leadership, plus substantial fundraising and outside support, has produced the current trader consensus favoring her at 92%. Democrat John Duresky, the sole major-party challenger who advanced with 31%, faces structural headwinds in a seat where Republicans have held large margins. A shift would require unusually high Democratic turnout, a major late-breaking development, or significant erosion of McKinney’s base in the final weeks before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$57,658Date de fin
4 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETRésolveur
0x2f5e3684c...Amanda McKinney secured the Republican nomination in Washington’s 4th Congressional District after winning the August 2026 top-two primary with 35% of the vote in the open seat race to succeed retiring Rep. Dan Newhouse. The district’s consistent Republican tilt, reflected in strong past performance by GOP candidates, combined with McKinney’s endorsements from President Trump and House leadership, plus substantial fundraising and outside support, has produced the current trader consensus favoring her at 92%. Democrat John Duresky, the sole major-party challenger who advanced with 31%, faces structural headwinds in a seat where Republicans have held large margins. A shift would require unusually high Democratic turnout, a major late-breaking development, or significant erosion of McKinney’s base in the final weeks before the November 3 general election.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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