Elevated inflation readings and geopolitical energy shocks are the dominant forces shaping trader views on the S&P 500’s December close. Hotter-than-expected August producer prices (headline +5.4% year-over-year) and Brent crude above $100 per barrel have lifted 10-year Treasury yields and pushed markets to price roughly a 60% chance of a 25-basis-point Fed funds rate hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting. Strong second-quarter earnings—S&P 500 profits up more than 30% year-over-year with broad revenue gains—have provided support, keeping the index near 7,590 amid a year-to-date advance of roughly 11%. Key near-term catalysts include Friday’s CPI release and the FOMC’s updated dot plot, which will clarify whether policy remains on hold or tightens further into year-end.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour$344,785 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
↑ $10,000
2%
↑ 9 300 $
3%
↑ $9,000
2%
↑ 8 600 $
9%
↑ 8 200 $
27%
↑ $8,000
47%
↓ $7,400
73%
↓ $7,200
52%
↓ $7,000
33%
↓ 6 200 $
13%
↓ $6,000
12%
↓ 5 800 $
9%
↓ 5 200 $
7%
↓ 4 500 $
3%
$344,785 Vol.
↑ $10,000
$225 Vol.
2%
↑ 9 300 $
$9,578 Vol.
3%
↑ $9,000
$78 Vol.
2%
↑ 8 600 $
$30,614 Vol.
9%
↑ 8 200 $
$23,827 Vol.
27%
↑ $8,000
$559 Vol.
47%
↓ $7,400
$0 Vol.
73%
↓ $7,200
$145 Vol.
52%
↓ $7,000
$758 Vol.
33%
↓ 6 200 $
$54,154 Vol.
13%
↓ $6,000
$3,148 Vol.
12%
↓ 5 800 $
$41,870 Vol.
9%
↓ 5 200 $
$59,409 Vol.
7%
↓ 4 500 $
$60,371 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and market close on the final day of trading for December 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPX) shows a final "High" price equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered.
Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered.
All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for S&P 500 (SPX) available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/.This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and market close on the final day of trading for December 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPX) shows a final "Low" price equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered.
Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered.
All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for S&P 500 (SPX) available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/.Elevated inflation readings and geopolitical energy shocks are the dominant forces shaping trader views on the S&P 500’s December close. Hotter-than-expected August producer prices (headline +5.4% year-over-year) and Brent crude above $100 per barrel have lifted 10-year Treasury yields and pushed markets to price roughly a 60% chance of a 25-basis-point Fed funds rate hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting. Strong second-quarter earnings—S&P 500 profits up more than 30% year-over-year with broad revenue gains—have provided support, keeping the index near 7,590 amid a year-to-date advance of roughly 11%. Key near-term catalysts include Friday’s CPI release and the FOMC’s updated dot plot, which will clarify whether policy remains on hold or tightens further into year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and market close on the final day of trading for December 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPX) shows a final "High" price equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered.
Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered.
All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for S&P 500 (SPX) available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/.
All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered.
Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered.
All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for S&P 500 (SPX) available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/.
Marché ouvert : Aug 13, 2026, 12:44 PM ET
Volume
$344,785Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 13, 2026, 12:44 PM ETSource de résolution
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/Résolveur
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and market close on the final day of trading for December 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPX) shows a final "High" price equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered.
Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered.
All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for S&P 500 (SPX) available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/.This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and market close on the final day of trading for December 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPX) shows a final "Low" price equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered.
Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered.
All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for S&P 500 (SPX) available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/.Elevated inflation readings and geopolitical energy shocks are the dominant forces shaping trader views on the S&P 500’s December close. Hotter-than-expected August producer prices (headline +5.4% year-over-year) and Brent crude above $100 per barrel have lifted 10-year Treasury yields and pushed markets to price roughly a 60% chance of a 25-basis-point Fed funds rate hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting. Strong second-quarter earnings—S&P 500 profits up more than 30% year-over-year with broad revenue gains—have provided support, keeping the index near 7,590 amid a year-to-date advance of roughly 11%. Key near-term catalysts include Friday’s CPI release and the FOMC’s updated dot plot, which will clarify whether policy remains on hold or tightens further into year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and market close on the final day of trading for December 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPX) shows a final "High" price equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered.
Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered.
All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for S&P 500 (SPX) available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/.
All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered.
Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered.
All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for S&P 500 (SPX) available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/.
Volume
$344,785Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 13, 2026, 12:44 PM ETSource de résolution
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/Résolveur
0x65070BE91...Elevated inflation readings and geopolitical energy shocks are the dominant forces shaping trader views on the S&P 500’s December close. Hotter-than-expected August producer prices (headline +5.4% year-over-year) and Brent crude above $100 per barrel have lifted 10-year Treasury yields and pushed markets to price roughly a 60% chance of a 25-basis-point Fed funds rate hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting. Strong second-quarter earnings—S&P 500 profits up more than 30% year-over-year with broad revenue gains—have provided support, keeping the index near 7,590 amid a year-to-date advance of roughly 11%. Key near-term catalysts include Friday’s CPI release and the FOMC’s updated dot plot, which will clarify whether policy remains on hold or tightens further into year-end.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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