**OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra launch on September 3, 2026, quickly captured the top spot on Code Arena’s WebDev leaderboard with a 1,797 Elo score, edging Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 at 1,762.** This shift, driven by strong multi-step frontend agent performance in crowdsourced evaluations, has traders pricing Anthropic at 65.1% implied probability for second place by end-October. Claude models continue to lead broader coding benchmarks such as SWE-bench Verified and Terminal-Bench, supported by consistent agentic tool use and long-context handling. Lower-priced Chinese models from Moonshot (Kimi) and Z.ai (GLM) remain competitive on the arena but trail in trader consensus. Key near-term catalysts include any October model refreshes or further leaderboard updates that could alter relative positioning among frontier labs.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourAnthropic 65.3%
OpenAI 21%
SpaceXAI 4.8%
Alibaba 5%
$18,952 Vol.
$18,952 Vol.
31 oct. 2026
Anthropic
65%
OpenAI
21%
SpaceXAI
5%
Alibaba
5%
DeepSeek
3%
2%
Moonshot
2%
Meta
2%
Poolside
1%
Z.ai
1%
ByteDance
1%
Xiaomi
1%
Mistral
1%
Tencent
<1%
Thinky
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Anthropic 65.3%
OpenAI 21%
SpaceXAI 4.8%
Alibaba 5%
$18,952 Vol.
$18,952 Vol.
31 oct. 2026
Anthropic
$3,005 Vol.
65%
OpenAI
$1,351 Vol.
21%
SpaceXAI
$585 Vol.
5%
Alibaba
$1,846 Vol.
5%
DeepSeek
$631 Vol.
3%
$669 Vol.
2%
Moonshot
$4,931 Vol.
2%
Meta
$709 Vol.
2%
Poolside
$969 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$645 Vol.
1%
ByteDance
$660 Vol.
1%
Xiaomi
$409 Vol.
1%
Mistral
$794 Vol.
1%
Tencent
$603 Vol.
<1%
Thinky
$656 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$489 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard when the table under "Code Arena | WebDev" filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev?rankBy=labs (Overall) filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".**OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra launch on September 3, 2026, quickly captured the top spot on Code Arena’s WebDev leaderboard with a 1,797 Elo score, edging Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 at 1,762.** This shift, driven by strong multi-step frontend agent performance in crowdsourced evaluations, has traders pricing Anthropic at 65.1% implied probability for second place by end-October. Claude models continue to lead broader coding benchmarks such as SWE-bench Verified and Terminal-Bench, supported by consistent agentic tool use and long-context handling. Lower-priced Chinese models from Moonshot (Kimi) and Z.ai (GLM) remain competitive on the arena but trail in trader consensus. Key near-term catalysts include any October model refreshes or further leaderboard updates that could alter relative positioning among frontier labs.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard when the table under "Code Arena | WebDev" filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev?rankBy=labs (Overall) filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev?rankBy=labs (Overall) filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Marché ouvert : Aug 12, 2026, 7:56 PM ET
Volume
$18,952Date de fin
1 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 12, 2026, 7:56 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard when the table under "Code Arena | WebDev" filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev?rankBy=labs (Overall) filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".**OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra launch on September 3, 2026, quickly captured the top spot on Code Arena’s WebDev leaderboard with a 1,797 Elo score, edging Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 at 1,762.** This shift, driven by strong multi-step frontend agent performance in crowdsourced evaluations, has traders pricing Anthropic at 65.1% implied probability for second place by end-October. Claude models continue to lead broader coding benchmarks such as SWE-bench Verified and Terminal-Bench, supported by consistent agentic tool use and long-context handling. Lower-priced Chinese models from Moonshot (Kimi) and Z.ai (GLM) remain competitive on the arena but trail in trader consensus. Key near-term catalysts include any October model refreshes or further leaderboard updates that could alter relative positioning among frontier labs.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard when the table under "Code Arena | WebDev" filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev?rankBy=labs (Overall) filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev?rankBy=labs (Overall) filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$18,952Date de fin
1 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 12, 2026, 7:56 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...**OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra launch on September 3, 2026, quickly captured the top spot on Code Arena’s WebDev leaderboard with a 1,797 Elo score, edging Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 at 1,762.** This shift, driven by strong multi-step frontend agent performance in crowdsourced evaluations, has traders pricing Anthropic at 65.1% implied probability for second place by end-October. Claude models continue to lead broader coding benchmarks such as SWE-bench Verified and Terminal-Bench, supported by consistent agentic tool use and long-context handling. Lower-priced Chinese models from Moonshot (Kimi) and Z.ai (GLM) remain competitive on the arena but trail in trader consensus. Key near-term catalysts include any October model refreshes or further leaderboard updates that could alter relative positioning among frontier labs.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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