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icon for Gagnant de l'élection à la Chambre OH-09
Politique·Midterms

Gagnant de l'élection à la Chambre OH-09

icon for Gagnant de l'élection à la Chambre OH-09
Politique·Midterms

Gagnant de l'élection à la Chambre OH-09

Polymarket

$31,714 Vol.

Polymarket

$31,714 Vol.

Marcy Kaptur (D)

$5,652 Vol.

68%

Derek Merrin (R)

$26,061 Vol.

31%

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Marcy Kaptur's long tenure since 1982, consistent outperformance of national Democratic margins in the district, and substantial fundraising edge of roughly $4.3 million to $1.5 million have anchored trader consensus around her reelection prospects. Redistricting shifted the seat toward a Republican lean, with 2024 presidential results showing Donald Trump ahead by about 11 points on the new lines, yet Kaptur's narrow 2024 victory under prior boundaries and strong local delivery on infrastructure and jobs sustain her lead in Polymarket pricing. Derek Merrin's May primary win and Trump endorsement provide Republican momentum, though forecasters rate the November 3 contest across toss-up, lean Democratic, and tilt Republican categories. This setup leaves room for late-cycle shifts from turnout or national conditions.

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.

​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$31,714
Date de fin
4 nov. 2026
Marché ouvert
Dec 16, 2025, 12:48 PM ET

Résolveur

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Marcy Kaptur's long tenure since 1982, consistent outperformance of national Democratic margins in the district, and substantial fundraising edge of roughly $4.3 million to $1.5 million have anchored trader consensus around her reelection prospects. Redistricting shifted the seat toward a Republican lean, with 2024 presidential results showing Donald Trump ahead by about 11 points on the new lines, yet Kaptur's narrow 2024 victory under prior boundaries and strong local delivery on infrastructure and jobs sustain her lead in Polymarket pricing. Derek Merrin's May primary win and Trump endorsement provide Republican momentum, though forecasters rate the November 3 contest across toss-up, lean Democratic, and tilt Republican categories. This setup leaves room for late-cycle shifts from turnout or national conditions.

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.

​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$31,714
Date de fin
4 nov. 2026
Marché ouvert
Dec 16, 2025, 12:48 PM ET

Résolveur

0x2F5e3684c...

Connexes

icon for Le Parti républicain remportera-t-il le siège de la Chambre pour OH-08 ?

Le Parti républicain remportera-t-il le siège de la Chambre pour OH-08 ?

88%
Oui
icon for Le Parti républicain remportera-t-il le siège de la Chambre pour la circonscription OH-06 ?

Le Parti républicain remportera-t-il le siège de la Chambre pour la circonscription OH-06 ?

95%
Oui
icon for Le Parti républicain va-t-il remporter le siège de la Chambre pour l'OH-10 ?

Le Parti républicain va-t-il remporter le siège de la Chambre pour l'OH-10 ?

84%
Oui

Méfiez-vous des liens externes.

Questions fréquentes

« Gagnant de l'élection à la Chambre OH-09 » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 2 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « Marcy Kaptur (D) » à 68%, suivi de « Derek Merrin (R) » à 31%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 68¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 68% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

À ce jour, « Gagnant de l'élection à la Chambre OH-09 » a généré $31.7K en volume total de trading depuis le lancement du marché le Dec 16, 2025. Ce niveau d'activité reflète un fort engagement de la communauté Polymarket et garantit que les cotes actuelles sont alimentées par un large bassin de participants. Vous pouvez suivre les mouvements de prix en direct et trader sur n'importe quel résultat directement sur cette page.

Pour trader sur « Gagnant de l'élection à la Chambre OH-09 », parcourez les 2 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « Gagnant de l'élection à la Chambre OH-09 » est « Marcy Kaptur (D) » à 68%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 68% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « Derek Merrin (R) » à 31%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Gagnant de l'élection à la Chambre OH-09 » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.