Netanyahu remains actively engaged in campaigning ahead of Israel’s October 27 Knesset election, with recent polls showing his Likud-led bloc holding competitive ground near or slightly above 50 seats despite intense scrutiny over October 7 security failures and ongoing testimony from former aides. Traders assign overwhelming probability to him staying in the race because he has repeatedly defied expectations to retain power through coalition maneuvering and bloc loyalty, faces no immediate legal or health barrier forcing withdrawal, and treats the vote as a direct referendum on his leadership. The short remaining timeline further reduces scope for sudden changes. Late developments such as a major health event, explosive new legal ruling, or collapse of key coalition support could still alter the path, though none appear imminent based on current reporting.