Aaron Flint holds the edge in trader consensus for Montana’s 1st Congressional District because the open seat, vacated by retiring Republican incumbent Ryan Zinke, favors the party in a district Trump carried by double digits in 2024. Flint secured the GOP nomination in the June 2 primary with early Trump backing and endorsements from Zinke and state Republican leaders, while Forstag narrowly won the Democratic primary as a smokejumper and union organizer supported by Senator Bernie Sanders and Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. Recent bipartisan signals for Forstag, including an endorsement from former RNC chair Marc Racicot and polling showing a statistical tie in late June, have kept the race competitive. However, the district’s Republican lean and lack of major late-cycle shifts sustain Flint’s lead with roughly seven weeks until the November 3 general election.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour$11,260 Vol.
$11,260 Vol.
3 nov. 2026
Aaron Flint (R)
62%
Sam Forstag (D)
38%
$11,260 Vol.
$11,260 Vol.
3 nov. 2026
Aaron Flint (R)
$6,189 Vol.
62%
Sam Forstag (D)
$5,071 Vol.
38%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Aaron Flint holds the edge in trader consensus for Montana’s 1st Congressional District because the open seat, vacated by retiring Republican incumbent Ryan Zinke, favors the party in a district Trump carried by double digits in 2024. Flint secured the GOP nomination in the June 2 primary with early Trump backing and endorsements from Zinke and state Republican leaders, while Forstag narrowly won the Democratic primary as a smokejumper and union organizer supported by Senator Bernie Sanders and Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. Recent bipartisan signals for Forstag, including an endorsement from former RNC chair Marc Racicot and polling showing a statistical tie in late June, have kept the race competitive. However, the district’s Republican lean and lack of major late-cycle shifts sustain Flint’s lead with roughly seven weeks until the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Marché ouvert : Dec 16, 2025, 12:19 PM ET
Volume
$11,260Date de fin
4 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 16, 2025, 12:19 PM ETRésolveur
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Aaron Flint holds the edge in trader consensus for Montana’s 1st Congressional District because the open seat, vacated by retiring Republican incumbent Ryan Zinke, favors the party in a district Trump carried by double digits in 2024. Flint secured the GOP nomination in the June 2 primary with early Trump backing and endorsements from Zinke and state Republican leaders, while Forstag narrowly won the Democratic primary as a smokejumper and union organizer supported by Senator Bernie Sanders and Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. Recent bipartisan signals for Forstag, including an endorsement from former RNC chair Marc Racicot and polling showing a statistical tie in late June, have kept the race competitive. However, the district’s Republican lean and lack of major late-cycle shifts sustain Flint’s lead with roughly seven weeks until the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$11,260Date de fin
4 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 16, 2025, 12:19 PM ETRésolveur
0x2F5e3684c...Aaron Flint holds the edge in trader consensus for Montana’s 1st Congressional District because the open seat, vacated by retiring Republican incumbent Ryan Zinke, favors the party in a district Trump carried by double digits in 2024. Flint secured the GOP nomination in the June 2 primary with early Trump backing and endorsements from Zinke and state Republican leaders, while Forstag narrowly won the Democratic primary as a smokejumper and union organizer supported by Senator Bernie Sanders and Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. Recent bipartisan signals for Forstag, including an endorsement from former RNC chair Marc Racicot and polling showing a statistical tie in late June, have kept the race competitive. However, the district’s Republican lean and lack of major late-cycle shifts sustain Flint’s lead with roughly seven weeks until the November 3 general election.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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