**Trader sentiment centers on a narrow range of mid-70s overnight lows for Dallas on September 21, 2026, driven by a warm, moist airmass with limited radiational cooling.** Official forecasts from the National Weather Service and multiple models consistently project a daily minimum in the mid-70s (typically 75–77°F), reflecting persistent southerly to southeasterly flow off the Gulf of Mexico that maintains elevated dew points near 67–70°F and prevents significant nocturnal temperature drops. Recent conditions show highs in the low 90s with scattered afternoon thunderstorm chances (30–40% probability), which increase cloud cover and further suppress overnight cooling compared to clearer historical September patterns (average low ~68°F). The tight clustering of market-implied odds around 74–79°F captures model uncertainty in exact wind speeds, cloud persistence, and storm timing—factors that differentiate bins through their impact on boundary-layer mixing and longwave radiation loss. Stronger consensus on mid-70s outcomes aligns with current observations and short-range guidance, while lower or higher extremes remain low-probability given the absence of a cold front or major synoptic shift.