Recent military strikes by the US and Israel have severely damaged Iran's nuclear facilities, leaving enrichment sites inoperable, centrifuges destroyed or inaccessible, and stockpiles of 60% enriched uranium bottled up underground without verified movement or further processing. The IAEA's September 2026 referral of Iran to the UN Security Council for non-compliance underscores blocked inspections and unresolved safeguards issues, reinforcing assessments that Tehran lacks near-term capacity for a nuclear test. Trader consensus at 95.6% against a test before 2027 aligns with this constrained posture. Scenarios that could shift odds include accelerated recovery of underground sites like Pickaxe Mountain, leadership decisions to pursue weaponization amid unresolved conflicts, or undetected extraction of enriched material.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourEssai nucléaire iranien avant 2027 ?
Essai nucléaire iranien avant 2027 ?
Oui
4% chance
$257,368 Vol.
$257,368 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
4% chance
$257,368 Vol.
$257,368 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent military strikes by the US and Israel have severely damaged Iran's nuclear facilities, leaving enrichment sites inoperable, centrifuges destroyed or inaccessible, and stockpiles of 60% enriched uranium bottled up underground without verified movement or further processing. The IAEA's September 2026 referral of Iran to the UN Security Council for non-compliance underscores blocked inspections and unresolved safeguards issues, reinforcing assessments that Tehran lacks near-term capacity for a nuclear test. Trader consensus at 95.6% against a test before 2027 aligns with this constrained posture. Scenarios that could shift odds include accelerated recovery of underground sites like Pickaxe Mountain, leadership decisions to pursue weaponization amid unresolved conflicts, or undetected extraction of enriched material.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
Volume
$257,368Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent military strikes by the US and Israel have severely damaged Iran's nuclear facilities, leaving enrichment sites inoperable, centrifuges destroyed or inaccessible, and stockpiles of 60% enriched uranium bottled up underground without verified movement or further processing. The IAEA's September 2026 referral of Iran to the UN Security Council for non-compliance underscores blocked inspections and unresolved safeguards issues, reinforcing assessments that Tehran lacks near-term capacity for a nuclear test. Trader consensus at 95.6% against a test before 2027 aligns with this constrained posture. Scenarios that could shift odds include accelerated recovery of underground sites like Pickaxe Mountain, leadership decisions to pursue weaponization amid unresolved conflicts, or undetected extraction of enriched material.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$257,368Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...Recent military strikes by the US and Israel have severely damaged Iran's nuclear facilities, leaving enrichment sites inoperable, centrifuges destroyed or inaccessible, and stockpiles of 60% enriched uranium bottled up underground without verified movement or further processing. The IAEA's September 2026 referral of Iran to the UN Security Council for non-compliance underscores blocked inspections and unresolved safeguards issues, reinforcing assessments that Tehran lacks near-term capacity for a nuclear test. Trader consensus at 95.6% against a test before 2027 aligns with this constrained posture. Scenarios that could shift odds include accelerated recovery of underground sites like Pickaxe Mountain, leadership decisions to pursue weaponization amid unresolved conflicts, or undetected extraction of enriched material.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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