Recent data show the 30-year Treasury yield near 5.33% as of mid-September 2026, up sharply from roughly 4.75% a year earlier amid resilient U.S. growth, persistent core inflation around 2.5-3%, and elevated energy prices tied to geopolitical tensions. Markets price in a higher-for-longer Fed policy path, with some probability of near-term rate hikes under Chair Kevin Warsh, alongside rising term premia reflecting heavy Treasury issuance and structural capital demand from AI infrastructure. Fiscal deficits continue to expand supply while labor-market strength limits disinflation. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming CPI releases, employment reports, and FOMC communications that could shift rate expectations and real yields. These dynamics suggest limited downside for long-term yields through year-end absent a clear growth slowdown.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourJusqu'à quel point le rendement des bons du Trésor à 30 ans sera-t-il faible avant 2027 ?
Jusqu'à quel point le rendement des bons du Trésor à 30 ans sera-t-il faible avant 2027 ?
$14,287 Vol.
30 déc. 2026
Sous 5,20 %
61%
Sous 5,15 %
56%
Sous 5,10 %
43%
Sous 5,05 %
38%
Sous 5,00 %
30%
Sous 4,95 %
27%
Sous 4,90%
19%
En dessous de 4,80 %
14%
En dessous de 4,60 %
2%
$14,287 Vol.
Sous 5,20 %
$1,512 Vol.
61%
Sous 5,15 %
$775 Vol.
56%
Sous 5,10 %
$1,844 Vol.
43%
Sous 5,05 %
$234 Vol.
38%
Sous 5,00 %
$1,930 Vol.
30%
Sous 4,95 %
$561 Vol.
27%
Sous 4,90%
$1,158 Vol.
19%
En dessous de 4,80 %
$3,100 Vol.
14%
En dessous de 4,60 %
$3,173 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 2, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).Recent data show the 30-year Treasury yield near 5.33% as of mid-September 2026, up sharply from roughly 4.75% a year earlier amid resilient U.S. growth, persistent core inflation around 2.5-3%, and elevated energy prices tied to geopolitical tensions. Markets price in a higher-for-longer Fed policy path, with some probability of near-term rate hikes under Chair Kevin Warsh, alongside rising term premia reflecting heavy Treasury issuance and structural capital demand from AI infrastructure. Fiscal deficits continue to expand supply while labor-market strength limits disinflation. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming CPI releases, employment reports, and FOMC communications that could shift rate expectations and real yields. These dynamics suggest limited downside for long-term yields through year-end absent a clear growth slowdown.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 2, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Marché ouvert : Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ET
Volume
$14,287Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 2, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).Recent data show the 30-year Treasury yield near 5.33% as of mid-September 2026, up sharply from roughly 4.75% a year earlier amid resilient U.S. growth, persistent core inflation around 2.5-3%, and elevated energy prices tied to geopolitical tensions. Markets price in a higher-for-longer Fed policy path, with some probability of near-term rate hikes under Chair Kevin Warsh, alongside rising term premia reflecting heavy Treasury issuance and structural capital demand from AI infrastructure. Fiscal deficits continue to expand supply while labor-market strength limits disinflation. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming CPI releases, employment reports, and FOMC communications that could shift rate expectations and real yields. These dynamics suggest limited downside for long-term yields through year-end absent a clear growth slowdown.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 2, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Volume
$14,287Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...Recent data show the 30-year Treasury yield near 5.33% as of mid-September 2026, up sharply from roughly 4.75% a year earlier amid resilient U.S. growth, persistent core inflation around 2.5-3%, and elevated energy prices tied to geopolitical tensions. Markets price in a higher-for-longer Fed policy path, with some probability of near-term rate hikes under Chair Kevin Warsh, alongside rising term premia reflecting heavy Treasury issuance and structural capital demand from AI infrastructure. Fiscal deficits continue to expand supply while labor-market strength limits disinflation. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming CPI releases, employment reports, and FOMC communications that could shift rate expectations and real yields. These dynamics suggest limited downside for long-term yields through year-end absent a clear growth slowdown.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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