Recent hawkish signals from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, including September 2026 rate hikes and Jackson Hole emphasis on inflation risks, have kept the 30-year Treasury yield elevated near 5.30% as of mid-September. Persistent core inflation pressures, energy price volatility tied to geopolitical tensions, and elevated term premia amid heavy fiscal deficits and AI-driven corporate issuance have pushed long-end yields to multi-year highs. Treasury buybacks of longer-dated securities have provided modest support but failed to reverse the broader upward drift. Key upcoming catalysts include October employment and CPI releases plus the next FOMC meeting, which could shift market-implied rate paths and influence whether yields test lower levels before year-end. Traders view current pricing as reflecting sustained supply and policy headwinds rather than near-term relief.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourJusqu'à quel point le rendement des bons du Trésor à 30 ans sera-t-il faible avant 2027 ?
Jusqu'à quel point le rendement des bons du Trésor à 30 ans sera-t-il faible avant 2027 ?
$14,287 Vol.
30 déc. 2026
Sous 5,20 %
61%
Sous 5,15 %
56%
Sous 5,10 %
43%
Sous 5,05 %
38%
Sous 5,00 %
30%
Sous 4,95 %
27%
Sous 4,90%
19%
En dessous de 4,80 %
14%
En dessous de 4,60 %
3%
$14,287 Vol.
Sous 5,20 %
$1,512 Vol.
61%
Sous 5,15 %
$775 Vol.
56%
Sous 5,10 %
$1,843 Vol.
43%
Sous 5,05 %
$234 Vol.
38%
Sous 5,00 %
$1,930 Vol.
30%
Sous 4,95 %
$561 Vol.
27%
Sous 4,90%
$1,158 Vol.
19%
En dessous de 4,80 %
$3,100 Vol.
14%
En dessous de 4,60 %
$3,173 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 2, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).Recent hawkish signals from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, including September 2026 rate hikes and Jackson Hole emphasis on inflation risks, have kept the 30-year Treasury yield elevated near 5.30% as of mid-September. Persistent core inflation pressures, energy price volatility tied to geopolitical tensions, and elevated term premia amid heavy fiscal deficits and AI-driven corporate issuance have pushed long-end yields to multi-year highs. Treasury buybacks of longer-dated securities have provided modest support but failed to reverse the broader upward drift. Key upcoming catalysts include October employment and CPI releases plus the next FOMC meeting, which could shift market-implied rate paths and influence whether yields test lower levels before year-end. Traders view current pricing as reflecting sustained supply and policy headwinds rather than near-term relief.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 2, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Marché ouvert : Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ET
Volume
$14,287Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 2, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).Recent hawkish signals from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, including September 2026 rate hikes and Jackson Hole emphasis on inflation risks, have kept the 30-year Treasury yield elevated near 5.30% as of mid-September. Persistent core inflation pressures, energy price volatility tied to geopolitical tensions, and elevated term premia amid heavy fiscal deficits and AI-driven corporate issuance have pushed long-end yields to multi-year highs. Treasury buybacks of longer-dated securities have provided modest support but failed to reverse the broader upward drift. Key upcoming catalysts include October employment and CPI releases plus the next FOMC meeting, which could shift market-implied rate paths and influence whether yields test lower levels before year-end. Traders view current pricing as reflecting sustained supply and policy headwinds rather than near-term relief.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 2, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Volume
$14,287Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...Recent hawkish signals from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, including September 2026 rate hikes and Jackson Hole emphasis on inflation risks, have kept the 30-year Treasury yield elevated near 5.30% as of mid-September. Persistent core inflation pressures, energy price volatility tied to geopolitical tensions, and elevated term premia amid heavy fiscal deficits and AI-driven corporate issuance have pushed long-end yields to multi-year highs. Treasury buybacks of longer-dated securities have provided modest support but failed to reverse the broader upward drift. Key upcoming catalysts include October employment and CPI releases plus the next FOMC meeting, which could shift market-implied rate paths and influence whether yields test lower levels before year-end. Traders view current pricing as reflecting sustained supply and policy headwinds rather than near-term relief.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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