Recent federal and state investigations into sexual misconduct allegations against former Representative Eric Swalwell remain in early stages, with FBI agents seizing his electronic devices in mid-August 2026 under search warrants tied to civil rights statutes and related probes by the Manhattan district attorney and Los Angeles authorities. Forensic review of those devices and witness interviews typically require extended timelines before charging decisions, consistent with patterns in comparable cases involving former members of Congress. No indictments or formal charging announcements have surfaced in the weeks since the warrants, supporting trader consensus reflected in the 83.5% implied probability against charges by September 30. Ongoing reviews by multiple jurisdictions and the absence of imminent prosecutorial milestones further align with current market pricing.