Turkey's next presidential election remains scheduled for 2028, with ruling party allies discussing a possible early vote in March or April to enable Recep Tayyip Erdoğan to seek another term under constitutional rules that permit an additional candidacy following a snap election. Recent weeks have featured continued legal and political pressure on the main opposition CHP, including mayoral defections to the AKP and raids on independent media, alongside Erdoğan's active role in regional diplomacy such as the Organization of Turkic States summit. Parliament would require 360 votes to call an early election, a threshold the ruling alliance has not yet secured. These dynamics underpin trader consensus that the probability of Erdoğan leaving office by the end of 2026 remains low, absent unforeseen health, legal, or coalition shifts before then.