US law limits revocation of birthright citizenship to narrow statutory grounds such as naturalization fraud or specified criminal conduct, rather than athletic representation of another nation. Eileen Gu acquired US citizenship at birth and holds Chinese citizenship through naturalization, yet no Federal Register expatriation listing, DOJ proceeding, or legislative proposal has targeted her status despite ongoing public debate around the 2026 Olympics. Traders assign 97.8% probability to no revocation by year-end because no administrative process is underway and dual nationality remains legally permissible absent those triggers. Low-probability shifts could arise from new congressional expatriation rules or documented prior fraud, though neither has emerged.