Guinea enters the October 1 AFCON 2027 qualifier at Conakry’s Stade du 28 Septembre as the clear favorite after a 2-1 loss to South Africa on matchday one, while Kenya settled for a 1-1 draw with Eritrea. Traders price Guinea’s win at 67 percent implied probability on the strength of home advantage following years of exile from the venue, a deeper squad featuring Serhou Guirassy and returning midfielder Ilaix Moriba, and a 28-place FIFA ranking edge. Kenya’s away fixture after a short turnaround, limited depth, and historical struggles on the road keep their win probability at 37 percent, with the draw market reflecting the competitive nature of Group D qualifiers where only one additional team advances.